Cyclical Apocalypse 2023

The recession we predicted in August is almost here. Prepare for monetary meltdown. Things to look forward to next year:

  • Mass layoffs (started in q4) and spike in unemployment rate
  • Retail earnings miss heavily with a bad holiday season
  • Industrial production drops sharply
  • Used car bubble pops
  • Mass consumer defaults on car loans
  • Housing market collapse
  • Credit spread blowout
  • Zombie companies reduced to rubble
  • Mass bankruptcies
  • Negative real growth in all four macro sectors (income, production, consumption, employment, etc)
  • Various crypto exchanges insolvent
  • Mass panic and bank runs
  • SPY -30% to -70% drop
  • Disinflation and then deflation (not stagflation)
  • Energy bear market
  • Corporate rates turn into junk
  • Municipal bond meltdown
  • Emergency fed pivot but only after something dire breaks
  • Massive bond rally (tail end)



Beyond Technical Analysisitsoverrecession

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