Gas Wars
Aktualisiert
This is isn't my usual type of analysis, as I prefer to stay neutral and let the price action speak for itself, but I find the situation on Natural Gas very interesting and wanted to share my view on it. In trying to interpret the forces at play here in the recent past evolution of this market, I take a close look at highs and lows, peaks, bottoms, and the momentum and quality of a wave/move.
I posted an idea regarding wave from A to B which I partially anticipated in "Natural Gas Scenarios" but the end of the wave at B was a little bit of a surprise to me. It is almost like the Bulls were in charge but they went too far. Then the Bears got back into it, made some Bulls cash in and exit and it all came tumbling down. Point C is another similar case of "going too far" resulting in an immediate turnaround with the same type of momentum up until 2.842 which is a relevant level as it has seen several tops and turnarounds.
What is interesting in this situation though, is the represented "eye" shape which highlights the succession of higher lows, lower highs, and the change in the volatility of the market. Basically all forces that have been pushing this up and down, have receded a bit, bringing it into a tight spot where this might want to pop out sooner or later.
My main scenario which I am concerned about is an incursion towards the orange zone, where this could find a support and bounce back and try to reach for the white rectangle zone, a zone which I consider to easily qualify as a "going too far" scenario, where the Bears might come aggressively back into play and try and push this lower and bring it back to its senses.
On the opposite side of this potential is the Green Zone rectangle, where if the price reaches it in the specified time zone, it might trigger the reverse "going to far" scenario and let the Bulls take charge for a bit and chase the bears out of the picture in short term.
No clones were hurt in this experiment and in case the empire strikes back we can always hope for the return of the Jedi in case these Gas Wars continue to keep this market range bound, perfect for swing trading for the brave. May The Force of Profitable Trading be With You!
PS: Yoda is taking a nap. nen was here.
I posted an idea regarding wave from A to B which I partially anticipated in "Natural Gas Scenarios" but the end of the wave at B was a little bit of a surprise to me. It is almost like the Bulls were in charge but they went too far. Then the Bears got back into it, made some Bulls cash in and exit and it all came tumbling down. Point C is another similar case of "going too far" resulting in an immediate turnaround with the same type of momentum up until 2.842 which is a relevant level as it has seen several tops and turnarounds.
What is interesting in this situation though, is the represented "eye" shape which highlights the succession of higher lows, lower highs, and the change in the volatility of the market. Basically all forces that have been pushing this up and down, have receded a bit, bringing it into a tight spot where this might want to pop out sooner or later.
My main scenario which I am concerned about is an incursion towards the orange zone, where this could find a support and bounce back and try to reach for the white rectangle zone, a zone which I consider to easily qualify as a "going too far" scenario, where the Bears might come aggressively back into play and try and push this lower and bring it back to its senses.
On the opposite side of this potential is the Green Zone rectangle, where if the price reaches it in the specified time zone, it might trigger the reverse "going to far" scenario and let the Bulls take charge for a bit and chase the bears out of the picture in short term.
No clones were hurt in this experiment and in case the empire strikes back we can always hope for the return of the Jedi in case these Gas Wars continue to keep this market range bound, perfect for swing trading for the brave. May The Force of Profitable Trading be With You!
PS: Yoda is taking a nap. nen was here.
Anmerkung
Here is another perspective of how the forces have been playing out in this market. 3 Curved support and resistance lines that have been quite busy with the price action. Both scenarios, down - breaking the cup support, or up - breaking the resistance levels could gather momentum and create a significant wave regardless of direction and regardless of the fact that either scenario will probably hit a brick wall at some time because of the Gas Wars ... Anmerkung
A bounce from the red support curve. Don't know if this has gas in the tank to push for the intermediate resistance curve (yellow marked). There is also the red curved resistance above, and the white marked resistance level 2.842. It would be very interesting to see the price action near these resistance zones, but also a potential break towards the orange. Considering that the red support has been holding since July, we might be entering a special time frame for this instrument regardless of the direction of a break, break attempt, or just a simple walkover for these barriers that await.
Anmerkung
A very big jump that broke the red resistance curve and the white level.Anmerkung
Two candlestick shadows at the upper band. This one has been broken only twice, once from the first attempt, and second time after several bounces from it.Anmerkung
The fight is on. Drop from the upper resistance curve and a bounce from the intermediate, close to the white marked price level (resistance that became support).The white rectangle zone which was labeled as a scenario of "going too far" is very near, and it's lower level was almost reached with the recent high. This could get ugly as we have the weekend lined up and we could see gaps on Monday. Who likes Mondays anyway?
Make your bets on the Empire or the Jedi, but stay safe and may the force of profitable trading be with you in these Gas Wars.
Anmerkung
Not necessarily a critical point in this picture, but enough elements in this zone to consider the near future price action highly significant. The Yellow Intermediate support has been broken. This has easily become support and resistance in the past. So any test above can give another high and a continuation of the bear push if it can't go for the white rectangle zone. Right now, the price has found some support around the white marked price level. Any break below would be a significant sign to confirm further bearish momentum.
Anmerkung
Didn't even enter the white rectangle zone. Hard to Peg this market in the current climate of unfolding of events. Bon Voyage just in case we see the price double in the future. Last important low/pivot point was at 2.55. We could see 5.1. 
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