GOLD CRASH PART 3, 1630 KISS OF DEATH
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This is my third article. I am a gold trader and write only about GC.
If you've been following, I began with a gold crash in my first article. It played out with, but not before hitting a higher high.
Considering the situation and the fundamentals, I had believed 1550 would hold for a massive reverse up in PART 2. I hedged that saying if 1550 broke, it risks full blown crash.
That is still my position. This is part 3, this is how I believe it will play out.
If you've been following, I began with a gold crash in my first article. It played out with, but not before hitting a higher high.
Considering the situation and the fundamentals, I had believed 1550 would hold for a massive reverse up in PART 2. I hedged that saying if 1550 broke, it risks full blown crash.
That is still my position. This is part 3, this is how I believe it will play out.
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UPDATE: Wednesday March 18, 10:20 PM CT. Gold doesn't drop 250 and keep on dropping. It's not like we are in total global liquidation of everything everywhere. We will be in a week, but not before another fake out.
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UPDATE: Wed, Mar 18 10:45 PM CT.Butterfly? April 9 1475 CALL AND PUT. If it hits 1630, and you feel good about yourself, sell the CALLS put it all back in the PUTS.
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UPDATE: Wed, Mar 18, 11:10 PM CT. Yes, it does look like it might crash right NOW. This is a major test right here. If it breaks down hard RIGHT HERE, something is seriously wrong with the world, in really big way. I don't think we are there yet. I don't think this virus is something we cannot beat together as a country, as a species.
Every time I have used the "this time is different" argument, it did not work out for me. While it does seem this time is different economically speaking, we have 7.7 billion people. This thing hasn't killed 10,000 people. While I have read all the extrapolation, I don't think this event has changed the way people think and behave, economically speaking. This is the floor, we are going to 1630 next.
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UPDATE: Thu, Mar 19, 9:17 AM CT. The fed set up swap lines with other countries, not just the G-7, essentially becoming central bank to all central banks, directly. This move to stop and undo the spike in the USD should work for brief time. But once we get past 1600, longs need to take some profits and kill it at 1615, the last 15 points not worth the danger.
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UPDATE: Thu Mar 19, 1:26 CT.The break up will be soon, it will be fast and furious. The value is from here to Monday U.S. open.
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UPDATE: Thu Mar 19, 10:08 PM CTSEE THE UPDATE IN THE COMMENTS SECTION, I KEEP PUTTING DOWN THERE BY ACCIDENT.
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UPDATE: Mon, Mar 23, 11:46 AM CT. Looks pretty now, but the real test is next 18 hours. We will find out how much gas GC has left in the tank. We will also find out if my Infinite Volume Oscillator is worth a damn.
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UPDATE: Mon, Mar 23, 1:39 PM CT.The Infinite Volume Oscillator (IVO) is showing 1615, with the first attemp in Tues afternoon. But the entire move up is also stretching sideways. This puts the high on Wed afternoon or Thu morning, I'm leaning Thu. That said, if We can get 1610 on Tuesday, thats a big win and longs should be closed, bc the volatility on Wed could kick you out of your trade.
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UPDATE: Mon 23, 4:16 PM CT.IVO now showing peak on Tuesday afternoon maybe Wed morning. All longs should close Tuesay and start building shorts.
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PDATE: Mon, Mar 23, 10:02 PM CT.GC hit 1603 moments ago. Even though it doesn't seem like it wants to pullback, it will. Highly likely 1603 to 1573, and then running up to what - from here - seems like 1635-1640. If this happens tomorrow, IT IS AN ABSOLUTELY BEARISH SIGN! Sell the longs and get shorts. GDX puts probably work the best, GLD puts, etfs with DGLD DSLV DUST JDST etc...
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UPDATE, Tue, Mar 24, 3:27 AM CT. 1629. Good news, we almost hit 1630. Bad news, we got here a little too early, it has different implications. The first one is we can break 1640 today by virtue of momentum. But we have to tread carefully with our puts, spread them over Tuesday and Wednesday, just in case of shenanigans.
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UPDATE: Tue, Mar 24, 6:51 AM CT.Almost 1700. Strategy has not changed. It's just overshot, and a giant gift to short sell the next 3 weeks.
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UPDATE: Tue, Mar 24, Aftermarket.Bc of the overshot, the down curve will be wider, meaning the the first BIG move down is the 31st, reaching 1440 by 4/2.
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UPDATE: Tue, Mar 24, Aftermarket.Please note that there's a $60 difference between GC and XAU/USD right now. This is an unprecedented event. Note that GC is 1688, but XAU/USD is 1628 (GLD tracks spot, not GC).
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RECO: APRIL GDXJ PUTS!!!!!Anmerkung
UPDATE: WED 9:13 PM CT.Normally, after a high volume spike like Tuesday, there's supporting waves afterwards. I am not seeing that in GC. I saw a smaller than expected wave in XAU/USD. What this means is GC at risk of a quicker move down, beginning Thursday at 3 AM CT.
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9:40 PM, typo, "before" Thursday sat 3 AM CT.Anmerkung
UPDATE: THU 1:31 PM CT.I'm looking at volume techs on GC, XAUUSD from OANDA, and XAUUSD from ICE. All three say gold is going down. I will say that GC looks worse than XAUUSD, from OANDA in particular. But none of these change the time frame. GDXJ looks like it's going 6 feet under the next 5 trading dayS.
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UPDATE: FRI 12:13 PM CT.GDX, GDXJ getting crushed today!! GC WILL CATCH DOWN TO THAT CURVE BY TUESDAY!!
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COMMENT: SAT 2:12 AM CT.This is entirely unrelated, but at request of a buddy.
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COMMENT, CONTINUED:This is SLR-MBB-IVO for bitcoin, showing quick crash by Thursday 4/2.
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UPDATE: SUN 10:38 PM CT.The move up with GC is primarily due to new front contract. Even though it hasn't dropped hard, I FULLY EXPECT IT TO MON AND TUES. NO CHANGE IN TIMELINE.
HOWEVER, the look from April 3rd forward has changed, IT SHOULD BOTTOM 1420 ISH THIS WEEK OR NEXT. And all they way back up again, more zig zag.
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UPDATE: SUN 10:44 PM CT.NEW MAP ON THURSDAY, WE GO TO PART 4!!
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UPDATE: MON AFTER MARKET.Expectation for a giant crash by 04/02 HAS NOT CHANGED. BUT THE DEADLINE FOR A MAJOR MOVE DOWN IS 11 AM TOMORROW. If it down't go down by then, it usually goes up.
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CRITICAL UPDATE: CLOSE ALL SHORTS BEFORE U.S. CLOSE (4 PM ET, 3 PM CT)>> THAT INCLUDES ALL PUTS ON GC, GLD, GDX & GDXJ
>> THERE IS A FLOOR AROUND GC 1570-75 THAT WILL HOLD FOR NEXT 4 DAYS,
>> I WILL PUT UP PART 4 TONIGHT
Trade wurde manuell geschlossen
UPDATE: TUESDAY MAR 31. THIS IDEA IS FINISHED, CLOSED.Anmerkung
UPDATE: PLEASE SEE PART 4: 1690, THE REAL KISS OF DEATH!
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