GBPNZD reversal ahead?

18. März 2016

GBPNZD undershoot my projected reversal area but tested it after some sideways price action which support the view that a bullish break out will be next.

for my previous post see below:

21. März 2016

Anmerkung

I will try to give an example of how to interpreted the trade set-ups for those that find them confusing now and then.

First of all I showed a potential BUY trade GBPNZD based on the DAILY time frame. However there is no confirmation yet and the bullish move still looks corrective to me. Therefore it is important to keep an open mind in all cases. Zooming in on 1 hour time frame tells us that we might expect another leg lower first before GBPNZD is ready to start its bullish break out on the daily time frame.

The 1 hour time frame shows a corrective pattern. Price broke below the structure and is currently testing this structure by means of a consolidation of lesser degree. A break below would trigger a sell trade towards at least the lower structure line.
I would short this pair once we see the break and move my stop loss to break even once we hit the lower structure line to see whether we break lower again, which will most likely result in a new low and a fantastic risk/reward potential.

If I got stopped out at break even, I'm okay as well because the trade I'm focusing on is the bullish break out. Therefore the set-up I posted didn't change (daily time frame), only a short term trade opportunity might present itself. Fundamentally we might need to get the 'Brexit' scenario out of the way before all Pound pairs will rally, however the technical's tell us that we might expect this rather sooner than later.

22. März 2016

Trade ist aktiv

My stop is at break even and I'll wait and see whether price breaks lower.

22. März 2016

Trade ist aktiv

We saw the break, hope some of you are with me in this short.

29. März 2016

Anmerkung

Still holding my short, swap in my favor and stop in profit (above last consolidation).

30. März 2016

Anmerkung

Target 1 got hit for R/R 6/1

30. März 2016

Anmerkung

30. März 2016

Anmerkung

I sold the break just before we saw the break on 15 min tf (after the consolidation within ended). I showed my original stop of this 3rd trade for 4/1 R/R. First of my original trade hit target for R/R 6/1. Second original trade I moved stop loss as shown in this update for a minimum R/R of 7/1. However if my target got hit for all 3 trades we have an accumulative R/R of (0.5* 6/1+ 0.5*9/1)+ 4/1= R/R of 11.5/1* 2% risk is 23% return and some swap in our favor. (worst case scenario is 7.5/1= 15% return) I hope this examples shows how I trade and that you don't need to trade all set-up scenario's. I post a lot on Tradingview but we need confirmations before we enter a trade.