EUR-USD Fundmental-Technical Trade Set-up
The Fed's wording and decisions today will have huge effects on the EUR-USD. I expect $5 billion to remain in place for the Fed's monthly asset purchases as inflation has been subdued and there is still weakness in the US recovery. This will be bearish for the USD if it materializes as the market expects an end to QE3 - i.e. the withdrawal of the $15 billion per month in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities purchases.
Also, further dilly-dallying over the timing of interest rate hikes for the US will also push the Euro higher. I expect to Fed to maintain language such as "considerable time" for rates to remain near zero, which should also be bullish for the EUR-USD pair.
Looking at the technicals, the Relative Strength Index has moved above 50 today and if it remains above this level by today's close, this will serve as a signal of the formation of an upward trend. The EUR-USD has been supported by some positive news out of the Eurozone so far this week and looks to be establishing a strong upward trend, which will be further confirmed if the relative strength index tends towards 70.
The price action at present is just below the Bollinger Band and if it breaks out of the upper Bollinger Band with 1 standard deviation, this will serve as a buy signal. If this materializes, then it is expected the price action will tend to the upper Bollinger band with 2 standard deviation.
At the 2 hour timeframe, the middle Bollinger Band has acted as a strong support for the price action for this week and should continue to do so. If the price retreats back to this middle band, this will be a good opportunity to buy.
My trade suggestion: Long position with take profit at 1.28400/1.28380
Should materialize if my fundamentals expectations are correct.
Also, further dilly-dallying over the timing of interest rate hikes for the US will also push the Euro higher. I expect to Fed to maintain language such as "considerable time" for rates to remain near zero, which should also be bullish for the EUR-USD pair.
Looking at the technicals, the Relative Strength Index has moved above 50 today and if it remains above this level by today's close, this will serve as a signal of the formation of an upward trend. The EUR-USD has been supported by some positive news out of the Eurozone so far this week and looks to be establishing a strong upward trend, which will be further confirmed if the relative strength index tends towards 70.
The price action at present is just below the Bollinger Band and if it breaks out of the upper Bollinger Band with 1 standard deviation, this will serve as a buy signal. If this materializes, then it is expected the price action will tend to the upper Bollinger band with 2 standard deviation.
At the 2 hour timeframe, the middle Bollinger Band has acted as a strong support for the price action for this week and should continue to do so. If the price retreats back to this middle band, this will be a good opportunity to buy.
My trade suggestion: Long position with take profit at 1.28400/1.28380
Should materialize if my fundamentals expectations are correct.
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