WYCKOFF ON DAILY EUR-USD
I know that this chart is a long term outlook, maybe too long term for most traders to be able to utilize today, but my plan is to build a small watchlist of stocks/ETF's/currencies through the daily charts which will act as the anchor charts for the future shorter term charts that I will analyze in the future for more frequent trade ideas. These anchor charts will act to give broader support/resistance levels to the shorter term charts. My goal is to publish one new chart daily until my watchlist is complete. Unfortunately, my day job makes it almost impossible to analyze the thousands of stocks available daily. So I hope this will allow me to be more efficient and eventually analyze a watchlist of around 50 different securities to analyze daily on shorter term charts, such as 1-4 hours. So please bare with me while I build this watchlist.
My analysis:
This is the daily chart for EUR-USD with a downtrend channel spanning back to 2009. It is a gradual downtrend as evidenced by the (red) trend channel. We just broke the ICE (Wyckoff) level at around 1.20000 (a previous support level), which is also the bottom of a descending triangle pattern. It appears that we could potentially find support at the 1.12500 level with a bounce back up to the ICE level (Wyckoff). Regardless of where support is found my first short entry would be a break of the green trend line on a rally back up to the ice, with target at the lower (red) trend channel. If the rally continued it could find resistance at around the 1.25000 level. These are not two separate ICE levels, but one ICE ZONE, between 1.20000 - 1.25000. However, if the rally reaches the upper (red) trend channel then the current downtrend could end up being a "spring" leading to a retracement then another rally to the upper (aqua) trend channel line. So the question is, is this an accumulation phase or a re-distribution phase prior to further weakness, only time will tell. But even if the pair trades for years in the current range of 1.15000 - 1.40000, that is still 2500 pips that could produce some strong trends to trade in and out of. Good trading all.
Note:
Even though I don't pay much attention to fundamental data, when working with currency pairs, there is one unique variable that the equities markets don't usually have. That is the influence by the central banks to attain a goal of stability between the pairs. So unlike in the stock market where a stock could theoretically go to $0, it is unlikely that the pair will get too far below par (1.00000) without significant intervention to maintain a tighter range. Just my opinion. So with that said, I don't think we go too far past par (1.00000), even if I am right and we see further weakness.
My analysis:
This is the daily chart for EUR-USD with a downtrend channel spanning back to 2009. It is a gradual downtrend as evidenced by the (red) trend channel. We just broke the ICE (Wyckoff) level at around 1.20000 (a previous support level), which is also the bottom of a descending triangle pattern. It appears that we could potentially find support at the 1.12500 level with a bounce back up to the ICE level (Wyckoff). Regardless of where support is found my first short entry would be a break of the green trend line on a rally back up to the ice, with target at the lower (red) trend channel. If the rally continued it could find resistance at around the 1.25000 level. These are not two separate ICE levels, but one ICE ZONE, between 1.20000 - 1.25000. However, if the rally reaches the upper (red) trend channel then the current downtrend could end up being a "spring" leading to a retracement then another rally to the upper (aqua) trend channel line. So the question is, is this an accumulation phase or a re-distribution phase prior to further weakness, only time will tell. But even if the pair trades for years in the current range of 1.15000 - 1.40000, that is still 2500 pips that could produce some strong trends to trade in and out of. Good trading all.
Note:
Even though I don't pay much attention to fundamental data, when working with currency pairs, there is one unique variable that the equities markets don't usually have. That is the influence by the central banks to attain a goal of stability between the pairs. So unlike in the stock market where a stock could theoretically go to $0, it is unlikely that the pair will get too far below par (1.00000) without significant intervention to maintain a tighter range. Just my opinion. So with that said, I don't think we go too far past par (1.00000), even if I am right and we see further weakness.
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