EURGBP: The GBP Catalyst -One More High of Fundamental Thoughts
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EURGBP reached my trade target, but I believe that this is a good opportunity for one more push up in this uptrend.
I believe it can go to 0.88 or 0.92 before any significant resistance ensues. This pair is waiting for the upcoming HARD data on the UK economy coming up in a few hours!
Is all of that priced it? Think about this: Was the Brexit Vote already built into the price? Nonsense right? Of course everything is not already in it; so, price cannot be the end all and be all of intelligent swing trading; unless patterns are crystal balls. It would be, indeed, chart voodoo.
GBP:
Besides, given the bearish news coming out on the 16th at 3:30am, the UK's CPI and PPI, I believe it will support my thesis to stay SHORT the pound (GBP currency pair).
EURO:
Now, after UK's news comes out at 3:30am, at 4am, I do not know what to expect for the high impact data for the EURO, and don't want to do my usual prediction for this ZEW Sentiment data coming out for the EURO, like I normally do; however, others are expecting it to be positive. Going forward beyond that, I am bearish, long-term, the EURO, but just not right now; hence, I am reluctant to be a strong buyer of the EURO; just small trades and small losses are fine though.
My economic predictions in the UK have been skewed because of the Brexit, and it took a little bit of thinking outside the box to make reasonable trade, and in the past few weeks, things have gotten right back on track. The data coming still needs some experience to handle it but manageable for me.
Fundamental Predictions and Catalysts
Here are my fundamental views for Tuesday and Wednesday only: gyazo.com/62add43523ba9e38bbd86cf1c5dddd37
I actually have an army of info I am trying to condense for this journal.
I am mixed with the dollar, as their data switches from bullish to bearish and surprises us with no consistency. I hop, going forward that we do get nice data from the US to support the case for the fed to raise rates this year.
RISK:
(1) UK data comes out extraordinarily good for inflation (I mean...amazingly good, not just positive); and EURO data comes out terribly bad. That would eliminate my thesis of staying SHORT the pound. Then, I will be completely wrong. Then, BREXIT doesn't matter and the UK is all peachy and rosy.
..................Then, let's just pretend that BREXIT never occurred.
(2) EURO currency falls faster than the GBP currency. Of course, this is more favorable of these two scenarios for me. I don't care if both currencies are negative. Let's say BREXIT has taken a hold of both of these economies: Which one is falling faster? Which one is Sonic the Hedgehog and which one is Tails? GBP has been falling faster than the EURO, but we have to watch to see if and when the EURO falls, it will be the leader and mother of all falls.
I will watch for EURUSD shorts at a higher price. The dollar could still have some smoke cooking by the end of this week,, just like last week's flipflop of data.
I believe it can go to 0.88 or 0.92 before any significant resistance ensues. This pair is waiting for the upcoming HARD data on the UK economy coming up in a few hours!
Is all of that priced it? Think about this: Was the Brexit Vote already built into the price? Nonsense right? Of course everything is not already in it; so, price cannot be the end all and be all of intelligent swing trading; unless patterns are crystal balls. It would be, indeed, chart voodoo.
GBP:
Besides, given the bearish news coming out on the 16th at 3:30am, the UK's CPI and PPI, I believe it will support my thesis to stay SHORT the pound (GBP currency pair).
EURO:
Now, after UK's news comes out at 3:30am, at 4am, I do not know what to expect for the high impact data for the EURO, and don't want to do my usual prediction for this ZEW Sentiment data coming out for the EURO, like I normally do; however, others are expecting it to be positive. Going forward beyond that, I am bearish, long-term, the EURO, but just not right now; hence, I am reluctant to be a strong buyer of the EURO; just small trades and small losses are fine though.
My economic predictions in the UK have been skewed because of the Brexit, and it took a little bit of thinking outside the box to make reasonable trade, and in the past few weeks, things have gotten right back on track. The data coming still needs some experience to handle it but manageable for me.
Fundamental Predictions and Catalysts
Here are my fundamental views for Tuesday and Wednesday only: gyazo.com/62add43523ba9e38bbd86cf1c5dddd37
I actually have an army of info I am trying to condense for this journal.
I am mixed with the dollar, as their data switches from bullish to bearish and surprises us with no consistency. I hop, going forward that we do get nice data from the US to support the case for the fed to raise rates this year.
RISK:
(1) UK data comes out extraordinarily good for inflation (I mean...amazingly good, not just positive); and EURO data comes out terribly bad. That would eliminate my thesis of staying SHORT the pound. Then, I will be completely wrong. Then, BREXIT doesn't matter and the UK is all peachy and rosy.
..................Then, let's just pretend that BREXIT never occurred.
(2) EURO currency falls faster than the GBP currency. Of course, this is more favorable of these two scenarios for me. I don't care if both currencies are negative. Let's say BREXIT has taken a hold of both of these economies: Which one is falling faster? Which one is Sonic the Hedgehog and which one is Tails? GBP has been falling faster than the EURO, but we have to watch to see if and when the EURO falls, it will be the leader and mother of all falls.
I will watch for EURUSD shorts at a higher price. The dollar could still have some smoke cooking by the end of this week,, just like last week's flipflop of data.
Anmerkung
An unedited video for August 15, 2016: dropbox.com/s/7y8joc07e0sxqkt/August15_2016_rm.mp4?dl=0Anmerkung
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht
took profit at the doji...Anmerkung
uptrend remains in tact:Anmerkung
HOPPED BACK in with a 19 to 20 pip stop...not going to update this one.. focusing on GBPUSD..
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