Europe isn´t that bad like many Investors might think. The Germann DAX might show in the following weeks and month until end of 2017 that the sentiment is much more worse than the reality is. The Euro and the European Union will not fail and the Brexit finally might not occur or might end that UK will finally be a Member of EWR/EFTA with full acces to the European Market.
Investors do not talk about any positive momentum for the comming year 2017 or the years ahead in general beause they do not see any positive signs for 2017 or the following years.
If you are investing in stockmarkets you might have learned that years wich no one expect anything are often the best years in history.
This trading idea is for longterm investors and not for trades on a day over day basis.
.... the DAX made a kind of re test to go lower and back again under the major down trendline - and failled to pass it back into a new bearmarket:
... is this kind of pattern, what you see in this chart. For me it looks like that next week is to start something like an Elliot "3" wave.
Also i like this pattern because it reminds a bit to a Thomas Bulskowski´s Chart pattern http://thepatternsite.com/Rising3Methods.html even it is not excactly same. But this pattern shows a kind of three week downtrend wich is not able to go below the green candle in the fourth week before.
Maybe it is to early to come to this conclusion and maybe i am wrong. But for me it looks like that to many investors are to much afraid about the upcomming Referendum in Italy and that we will see the DAX going dramatically higher until the End of the year instead of a kind of "crash" - expecet by a majority of investors right now.
Watch this chart and see what you missed.
If you might think that any retail investors in germany might have been "smart" and might have bought this market at the lows guess what: You are definitely wrong. I also giving some comments about the marktes on a major german website for stockmarkets news and analysis. The "specialists" there (retail investors with "short bias only") did not published any trade today and did not give any (!) comment to the markets.
Even not to the Euro wich giving a short time buy signal, or to the Italian Stockmarket. You could not read or see any sign of celebration earning a couple of hundrets or even a few points betting on a rising stockmarket. You might guess what this means and that this rise in the German DAX will continue for a longer time if nothing dramatically might happen in the near future.
Germany is still under thread of a major terror attack to come. If ever you are following this trading idea do not hesitate to protect any long position with a short terme hedge with out of the money options like i did today once more.
You might guess what this means.
... and guess, what we are talking about:
THIS is Italy now - in this moment - in this second. If you believe it or not.
If you followed this trading idea you could have bought the DAX excactely at the low 10.355 on Monday Night and you have a net gain from 525 points until now.
An there is no reason to sell anything now or in the near future. Expect another 1.000 points bevor you need to think about taking profits.
Do you remember Matteo Renzi and the completely break down of the Euro, the EU, the banks ....?
The Stockmarket doesn´t - and that´s for sure.
Watch this chart and see what happend in the last 9 Trading days. A new bull market is born same time US-Investors betting billions of US-Dollar on a Italy and EU to break down.
.. and you see that the DAX runs like expected. On the other hand the widely expected stockmarket crash after the Italian Referendum never occurs. The DAX jumped directely above the key resistance line at 10.800 and cross the 11.000 without any problems.
After all do you believe that German Retail Investors getting ethusiastic now?
You are still wrong. The avarage expectations by end of the year 2017 is 10.950. The DAX hat been today at 10.326 points or almost 400 point higher than the average investor expect by next years end (!). After todays FOMC Traders try to short the DAX Future once more. They failed to pass by 11.200. For the upcomming december options exparations day on friday the expectations are clear - and high. The German DAX is expected to have kind of "flash crash" at least back to 11k or probably 10.800.
After all you have learned about this rally in wich almost all investors missed day by day any up move - what you guess might happen thursday and friday with Germany´s DAX?
Nobody knows what will happen in the future. But if ever 80% of all Investors telling the market to go down than is form all what we learned about stockmarket less likely that this might occur.
So come back on Monday and let us discuss again, what has happened until than and maybe what we might had known before.
Thanks for such self explanatory post. I just got one question its regarding this statement "do not hesitate to protect any long position with a short terme hedge with out of the money options". Kindly elaborate it and I am also expecting dax to move at-least 11200 within two weeks.
even a stockmarket goes rocket straight up like we see this today that doesn't mean the DAX can not open 2.000 Points lower tomorrow.
Just one example: The oldest Nuklear Power Plans in the World are here in Switzerland. One Failure could destroy the main part of Switzerland where all the GDP is made.
If ever you are long in the dax for 100k buy for 500 Euros out of the money puts 10.400 or lower good for 10 tradingdays only.
Germany has a lot of puts and calls you can buy directely from GS, DB or so many others.