[URGENT] It's all wash trading. Exchanges about to exit scam!
Aktualisiert
I noticed a while ago that the big exchanges were not at the top anymore, not even close (except Bitmex).
Right now we are supposed to believe that there is large buying interest in Bitcoin and volumes are rising. "This is the bottom".
The toplist of highest volume exchanges is full of unknown entities that announce volumes of hundreds of millions.
The order books are full of - totally not fake - big buy orders.
Even the legit exchanges have fake buy orders, these orders can be placed by anyone.
Well, Bitwise Asset Management went all in and filled a report to the SEC.
They found this:
- (Mostly) Legit exchanges trade history looks random, suspicious ones look a little too "perfect" and "predictable"
- Every buy has a corresponding sell on suspicious exchanges (typical of wash trading...)
- Spreads are tens to hundreds of dollars on 500 million volume Coinbene, compared to 0.01$ on Coinbase that has 1/18th their volume.
- This:
- RightBTC claims to have 100 million $ volume and they have periods of hours with 0 (it's still open). They even trying?
- Some have monotonic volumes (Chaoex make 70 million and it stays the same hour after hour). 100% not natural. 10 sigma events don't just happen...
- They looked at Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp Bittrex Poloniex BitFlyer volumes per amount traded. They see spikes on round numbers, that people are more likely to trade. Also the % weight in each bucket decreases as trade size increases. All natural. LOL. Then you look at Coinbene IDAX LBank BitForex Exrates OKEx (not sure if Okex is troll too) and either you think that 25 sigma events can happen in nature, or you think that it is more than suspicious.
- They looked at volume spikes, when there are news there are spikes. Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp etc look natural. The troll ones crack me up XD I should make a comedic youtube video. It's just so obvious when you actually print the data on histograms. 0% doubt.
- Spreads are troll too. That people fall for this can't be real :'D
I'm done XD
They find there are only 10 exchanges in the "big ones" that have actual volume (Bitmex is ignored they're a derivative exchange, the CME too), in this order:
Binance(110M) Bitfinex(38M) Kraken(31M) Bitstamp(31M) Coinbase(27M) bitFlyer(14M) GEMINI(8M) itBit(6M) BITTREX(5M) POLONIEX(1.4M)
The CME does volumes of around 75 million $, so they're quite relevant. If the total is 1.5 billion with Bitmex at 1 bil + the ones listed there + all the small ones, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does 5% (less since they are closed the weekend).
Going to show you volumes have DECLINED, not went up like they would like us to think:
1) Looking at Coinbase volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
==> This all reflects their site and mobile app activity, as well as general sentiment I am picking and market cycles.
2) Looking at Kraken volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
Looking at the XBTEUR volume which is as big or bigger on Kraken we see the same thing:
3) Looking at Bitstamp volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
Wow it's all looking the same!
These were the big 3 spot exchanges (Bittrex does maybe 5M, Poloniex 1.5M)
Now go look at coinmarketcap chart:
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/JciNx
Can you guess the rank of the big 3? CAN YOU?
Coinbase 115
Kraken 197 (USD) & 230 (EUR)
Bitstamp 171
(Binance 40)
(Bitfinex 112)
The top list is full of shady exchanges.
In the top 100 I only recognize Bitmex (1rst) and Binance.
Idk maybe they let Bitmex stay first to make it feel real.
We all know Bitmex is very popular...
Looking at site traffic or on twitter you can clearly tell.
All these exchanges claiming to make 150 million in volume, that no one heard about - no they're not "just chinese this is why we don't hear from them in US & EURO", they have no visits nothing.
All they are all the ones where the volumes went up.
YOU REALLY THINK COINBENE MAKE 500 MILLION IN VOLUME??????????
THEY HAVE SPREADS OF 300 DOLLARS. THREE HUNDRED DOLLAR SPREADS.
4) Looking at Bitmex volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
WOW! What an incredible surprise! Bitmex is following the exact same pattern as the other ones.
5) Quick for Binance & Bitfinex (Tether exchanges)
6) Let's check the CME
BOOM! Same as the other ones with natural patterns!
BOOM! Case and point!
Now go play "Entry Of The Gladiators" by Julius Fucik
(The clown/circus music)
And go look at Coineal Bibox etc...
Go look at coinmarketcap huge volumes.
Bitcoin increasing volumes...
Let's take a look at 2014:
Can convince people it is the bottom.
Can also just be denial, or what we saw in september-november 2018.
The only real risk is price gets manipulated up.
If exchanges exit scam it won't be the bottom...
+ Do not forget the armies of shill bots, etc.
Told you this was all a ponzi...
I am celebrating my 1 year of being a perma bear on Bitcoin, what an amazing gift Bitwise made for me ^^
Right now we are supposed to believe that there is large buying interest in Bitcoin and volumes are rising. "This is the bottom".
The toplist of highest volume exchanges is full of unknown entities that announce volumes of hundreds of millions.
The order books are full of - totally not fake - big buy orders.
Even the legit exchanges have fake buy orders, these orders can be placed by anyone.
Well, Bitwise Asset Management went all in and filled a report to the SEC.
They found this:
- (Mostly) Legit exchanges trade history looks random, suspicious ones look a little too "perfect" and "predictable"
- Every buy has a corresponding sell on suspicious exchanges (typical of wash trading...)
- Spreads are tens to hundreds of dollars on 500 million volume Coinbene, compared to 0.01$ on Coinbase that has 1/18th their volume.
- This:
- RightBTC claims to have 100 million $ volume and they have periods of hours with 0 (it's still open). They even trying?
- Some have monotonic volumes (Chaoex make 70 million and it stays the same hour after hour). 100% not natural. 10 sigma events don't just happen...
- They looked at Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp Bittrex Poloniex BitFlyer volumes per amount traded. They see spikes on round numbers, that people are more likely to trade. Also the % weight in each bucket decreases as trade size increases. All natural. LOL. Then you look at Coinbene IDAX LBank BitForex Exrates OKEx (not sure if Okex is troll too) and either you think that 25 sigma events can happen in nature, or you think that it is more than suspicious.
- They looked at volume spikes, when there are news there are spikes. Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp etc look natural. The troll ones crack me up XD I should make a comedic youtube video. It's just so obvious when you actually print the data on histograms. 0% doubt.
- Spreads are troll too. That people fall for this can't be real :'D
I'm done XD
They find there are only 10 exchanges in the "big ones" that have actual volume (Bitmex is ignored they're a derivative exchange, the CME too), in this order:
Binance(110M) Bitfinex(38M) Kraken(31M) Bitstamp(31M) Coinbase(27M) bitFlyer(14M) GEMINI(8M) itBit(6M) BITTREX(5M) POLONIEX(1.4M)
The CME does volumes of around 75 million $, so they're quite relevant. If the total is 1.5 billion with Bitmex at 1 bil + the ones listed there + all the small ones, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does 5% (less since they are closed the weekend).
Going to show you volumes have DECLINED, not went up like they would like us to think:
1) Looking at Coinbase volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
==> This all reflects their site and mobile app activity, as well as general sentiment I am picking and market cycles.
2) Looking at Kraken volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
Looking at the XBTEUR volume which is as big or bigger on Kraken we see the same thing:
3) Looking at Bitstamp volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
Wow it's all looking the same!
These were the big 3 spot exchanges (Bittrex does maybe 5M, Poloniex 1.5M)
Now go look at coinmarketcap chart:
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/JciNx
Can you guess the rank of the big 3? CAN YOU?
Coinbase 115
Kraken 197 (USD) & 230 (EUR)
Bitstamp 171
(Binance 40)
(Bitfinex 112)
The top list is full of shady exchanges.
In the top 100 I only recognize Bitmex (1rst) and Binance.
Idk maybe they let Bitmex stay first to make it feel real.
We all know Bitmex is very popular...
Looking at site traffic or on twitter you can clearly tell.
All these exchanges claiming to make 150 million in volume, that no one heard about - no they're not "just chinese this is why we don't hear from them in US & EURO", they have no visits nothing.
All they are all the ones where the volumes went up.
YOU REALLY THINK COINBENE MAKE 500 MILLION IN VOLUME??????????
THEY HAVE SPREADS OF 300 DOLLARS. THREE HUNDRED DOLLAR SPREADS.
4) Looking at Bitmex volumes
Reminder of volume during the euphoria phase:
Volume during complacency:
Volumes when price was flat:
WOW! What an incredible surprise! Bitmex is following the exact same pattern as the other ones.
5) Quick for Binance & Bitfinex (Tether exchanges)
6) Let's check the CME
BOOM! Same as the other ones with natural patterns!
BOOM! Case and point!
Now go play "Entry Of The Gladiators" by Julius Fucik
(The clown/circus music)
And go look at Coineal Bibox etc...
Go look at coinmarketcap huge volumes.
Bitcoin increasing volumes...
Let's take a look at 2014:
Can convince people it is the bottom.
Can also just be denial, or what we saw in september-november 2018.
The only real risk is price gets manipulated up.
If exchanges exit scam it won't be the bottom...
+ Do not forget the armies of shill bots, etc.
Told you this was all a ponzi...
I am celebrating my 1 year of being a perma bear on Bitcoin, what an amazing gift Bitwise made for me ^^
Anmerkung
This is part of an excel someone made a few months ago, I thought it was Vitalik but all he did was comment & agree with it.EOS pumped alot a while ago.
Baiting people to buy but they cannot exit, wash trading bots are not going to buy from them. Scammed.
When the trust was discovered about MtGox Bitcoin price got cut in half.
For some reason that took 3 weeks to happen...
There is really no reaosn to be in a hurry with Bitcoin...
Now the price dropping in half would bring us to my target of 1800, perfect.
Pompliano the prominent Bitcoin super shill, it's his friends that released this info.
Wouldn't surprise me if he shorted Bitcoin before they released this bomb...
Too dumb to make money from correctly evaluating markets? No problem use insider info!
The typical crypto enthusiasts are burying their heads in the sand.
But this is going to get out to miners institutions and retail (not sure retail reacts they don't seem very bright).
This is bigger than MtGox, there is no way something THIS big remains a secret much longer.
Anmerkung
People that got hired from Wall Street are leaving, one of the main reason is because the expected institutional wave never came (just like I explained 1 year ago...).Crypto is getting reverse adopted, meaning I keep seeing more and more of the few that accepted it, remove it.
Recently it has been Twitch. They used to accept Bitcoin, no more!
When markets bottom the news is bad, the opinion part is bad, but the actual fundamentals are good and bearish news and opinions are greatly exagerated (for example when Microsoft bottomed in 2008 it fired a few people and some people said it was the end and it would go very badly, but their earning to price ratios were as good as ever, their growth potential still good, they were still selling alot)
With crypto it is the opposite: Everything about it is aweful, wash trading, exchanges ceo's losing their keys/dying, miners threatening to 51%, underwater very large holders (big miners) that potentially will have no choice but to sell, adoption is reversing at an accelerating rate, all the smart money left only innexperienced ignorant delusional baggies left, etc.
We're gonna make it my bobros!
The 2 issues are:
- Since the people left are delusional baggies and not exactly the smartest tools in the shed, it could force bears to wait a long time. And maybe they buy more deadcoins each paycheck...
- The price could get pumped but I do not think this is super likely, the fake exchanges probably won't have an impact on Bitmex Coinbase etc, the funds in crypto are a risk, do they have money left thought? Maybe they get desperate.
Biggest risk is shorts on Bitmex get killed throught funding as this ponzi freezes for ages.
Hoping there's still a couple of people with common sense in this that would rather take a little loss now than wait years and lose a little to inflation every year and eventually lose a moderate amount to everything in a really long time.
Anmerkung
Can you see a pattern here?To sane people: last 2 times crypto investors waited a whole week to make sure no one would buy 'never know' "uh sorry guys I am very interested but I was in the toilet for a whole week"
To paranoid crypto investors: The whales, THEM, are printing this chart to make Bitcoin look bearish and shake weak hands, since they waited 1 week exactly last 2 times to manipulate the price and force people to sell them their Bitcoins I assume it is not unlikely this time again it takes 1 week.
Anmerkung
Ignore the ragers that are trapped with unrealized losses of 40%.Reward to Risk is 4 to 1 going short.
Even if this was a complete coinflip it is worth it.
Anmerkung
On coinmarketcap with all the wash trading exchanges Bitcoin is having a bull break.charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/HLBGG
The BLX chart was still below.
The average of legit exchanges chart rejected resistance.
Let's see how much power the wash trading exchanges have and if they can fool enough people to get the snowball rolling.
Why am I trading a literal ponzi? Still can't believe so many people are interested in this.
Last bull breaks had very weak follow up. This on is more important than others.
Since bitcoin bulls are in big denial they will bury their heads in the sand and ignore the scam going on with all these fake exchanges.
They're just going to lose all their money eventually.
I just wish they would go down faster...
Anmerkung
One of the ponzi exchanges volume has went up exponentially.
Anmerkung
“Dear diary,It took a larger pump than usual to entice those suckers to buy in, but boy did we cleaned them!
Every single time, I feel like we’ve reached the limits of their stupidity, and every single time, they prove me wrong.
Who could have thought idiots have so much money.”
Quoting someone, not my words.
So someone tried to sell 3k Bitcoin for real money on Coinbase, and it did not go so well. They froze trading and cleared their order book. Their entire liquidity is gone. When I scroll down to 1200$ 10 million is all there is. There used to be so much more. Like 1000 Bitcoin every 100 dollar or so, back when it was above 6000$
It's entirely possible wash trading exchanges keep supporting prices. No one is stopping them and cryptoers do not have the mental ability to care.
Bitcoin CAN go to 1 million dollar. It can even go to 100 million dollar, this month!
Buuuut it would be all fake and no one would be able to actually sell :p
On the other hand, crypto investors do not care do they? They have no intention to sell. They gave up their money for virtual coins, and all they care about now is the imaginary value of their magic coins, kinda like having a large fortune in world of warcraft: absolutely useless in real life, but pretty exciting to some people.
Binance order book going down to 3800 is only 500,000 and up to 5300 900,000.
I am not used to it anymore but... Well it keeps moving so idk. Still seems thin.
You have to log in on these sites to see anything now...
Kraken is thick... weird it ued to be the opposite.
The problem with a Ponzi that burns 10M/day is that gamblers run out of money, sooner or later.
I hope it's sooner than later I want to say "I told you so".
The ones that got scammed won't do anything, so as long as ponzi exchanges decide to keep pumping prices we keep going up I guess?
And when someone will more than 0.3 Bitcoin tries to sell, trading gets frozen and they either get denied or cancelled or it gets buried hoping cryptoers won't notice.
I won't be all expecting of anything, just to get bored out of my mind as nothing happens...
Much better to spend time on other things, more productive, and that are not scams, like learn about investing or something.
Anmerkung
OMG I JUST NOTICED.TETHER
VOLUMES
It has a volume of 18 billion $
Bitcoin on trusted exchanges has in total a volume of 2 billion. 16 Billion counting all the wash trading ones.
In late december 2017 Tether had a volume of 2 billion. And it stayed around there for over a year.
It has really gone up in the past month and half, first spiking to 8 billion, then kept going up, and now we're at 18 billion.
Makes sense that once they finally admit usdt is not backed, people keep using it more and more :D
So wash trading exchanges AND Tether pump? Damn...
The ponzi is going to explode completely. I just stay away until it bottoms out. At zero.
Anmerkung
Julian Assange of wikileaks sold 4000 Bitcoins to pay for legal fees.Criminals such as him (like it or not he is a criminal, I am not judging) use sites to cover tracks, to make it harder to trace where the Bitcoin came from, but if you spend time, or have a program do it for you in 0.00005 seconds, anyone can trace anything.
If all it took for a 10% drop was 4k Bitcoin. Oh my.
Shows how legit that 18 Billion Tether (and 16 billion wash trading exchanges) volume is :p
Over 3 million Bitcoin traded daily and a sell order of 4000 drops the price 10%?
HAHAHA
I am not involved in crypto anymore, in part for this reason.
Anyway, I'm pretty sure it will have a very slow very drawn out death, so it's just not interesting. Much much better opportunities, quicker, less risky, elsewhere.
Why am I even explaining. It's just stupid to still be interested in crypto.
Will probably still post a bit about it, when something funny happens.
Anmerkung
Tether and Bitfinex getting sued.It's just FUD. Market took 40 min to react and it probably won't make a difference (until Charles Ponzi runs dumps & runs away of course).
The 19 March Bitwise Asset Management met with the SEC and the 20 March the report was made official: almost all the trading volume in crypto is fake.
Did not stop the price from (very probably) being manipulated and pumped.
This market is straight retarded (I don't mean that as an insult) when you think of it this is what it is. It does not learn, it does not understand the consequence of things. "Learning disability" is exactly what the participants have, instead of thinking "ok this is a complete scam I want to buy but I will wait for the waters to be clear" instead "uuuh that's what they said last time I don't want to miss out I will average down 3000 was bottom".
"That's what they said last time" The pinnacle of dumb logic of our lifetime.
Brace yourselves, this is BEAUTIFUL:
Anmerkung
Bitcoin price WENT UP when MtGox hack was made public."Warren Buffet said buy when there is blood in the street"
Geez this market is dumb :'D
Anmerkung
How many exit scam exchanges are we at? A handful? Way more left.Another exit scams. 80 to go.
Cryptocurrency exchange Cryptopia tweets "don't panic' and that they are down for maintenance, halts trading and announces it is in the process of liquidation.
They will all drop 1 by 1.
Can all just go to zero at any time, and all the noobs never cutting losses averaging down on losers and generally having no rules and trading in the worse possible manner will learn their lesson.
Alot have already. The bears that "made 50,000% returns" last year have now blown up and are suicidal. Who could have seen this coming?
This market will kill any noob with dreams. The lesson will have to be learned the hard way for the 90%. They will blame manipulation, they will whine, they will go back to taking orders & flipping burgers.
Anmerkung
1. Print a billion Tethers out of thin air.2. Buy a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin while people don’t realise their online account cash balances are bullshit.
3. Bitcoin goes parabolic.
4. Sell Bitcoin to the FOMO crowd for real dollars.
5. “See? The Tethers are fully backed!”
Crash imminent now...
Maybe 13k was top. If it was not then it is pretty close. 13900 maybe...
Anmerkung
Where are the people that laughed at me for saying BTC price could keep going up?Hiding, of course. Poof! They all vanished.
And where are the bulls (dumb money falling for this sucker rally) telling me what an idiot I am for saying this ponzi will collapse, going to be, when it all collapses?
Hiding, of course. Poof! They all vanished.
Pathetic spineless cowards.
So unsurprisingly, BTC made a "Bitconnect" move.
Since I posted this, at least a dozen exchanges exit scammed (or got all their clients funds suspiciously hacked and closed doors).
It does not matter as long as it is not your exchange and price goes up.
Alot of suckers (since they fall for a sucker rally) have BTC in wallets.
They are going to realize they cannot get out of this ponzi when it crashes.
Most of them probably do not use stop losses (including trailing) anyway and will ride this to zero.
The hodlers will end up rekt. And then disappear. Do not cry if I rub it in your face when it happens!
The higher it goes the more euphoric they will be, but how high price goes is irrelevant. They will end up rekt.
I warned against short selling this ponzi, well especially for amateurs, which seem to represent 99% of this site. But on Bitmex risk can be limited and you get out at your exact stop loss price, and the 13k-16k area has decent odds of being the top.
Going to wait a few more days and see.
The thing is I probably do not see a precise price for the top.
So either scale in, or simply do not trade BTC and take trades with better odds and a better RR since potential tops can be pinpointed in non baggy assets.
BTC is full of bagHODLers and the price stops going up when we run out of greater fools, this is why bottoms are easy to predict but tops are not as much...
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