BTC at a crossroads -- Continuation or reversal confirmation?
It's been a long while since I've published much. The major reason for this is that I've been trading off of a single chart for the better part of 3 months now, and haven't had any reason to deviate from it. Price has come a long way from the summer rally.
We've experienced massive runs on stops, cascading margin calls, emotional bullish capitulation, new 2014 lows, and subsequent catharsis and bounce. I was able buy most of my current position below $300. It's important to keep my positions in mind when reading my analysis. I'm only on the move for managing risk I've already taken on.
The bounce to $400+ left me with an opportunity to enter short on a smaller timeframe with a portion of this position. The subsequent retracement price action left me in a great place -- with long and short positions both running and bounded by profitable stoplosses. I will examine this trade below and illustrate why I've scaled in "early" on this retracement and why it gives me a slightly bullish bias on the smaller time-frame that may be carried through to higher time-frames.
The outcome of this bullish bias is illustrated in the yellow arrows on the chart above. This is not a prediction so much as perspective on the possibilities. I remain firmly neutral on longer time frames. Again -- in the event of continuation of the downward trend represented by the master pitchfork above -- I will stick to my stops, take my small profits on buys from below $300, and hunt for an even better entry on lower lows.
However, in the event that the retracement bottoms out here, and we head from here to higher highs, a reversal will be confirmed enough for me to define a new pitchfork. I will also include what that pitchfork will looks like below, again, under the assumption that the $327.53 retracement bottom holds.
As a yardstick for our expectations, I've singled out a critical level on the OBV in teal. The corresponding horizontals on MFI and price signal a divergence that could play out as is, still build in strength or simply "fizzle out". In order to bring the shorter time-frame bias up to this daily frame, we'd expect to violate such a level that spans before and after the price bottom.
We've experienced massive runs on stops, cascading margin calls, emotional bullish capitulation, new 2014 lows, and subsequent catharsis and bounce. I was able buy most of my current position below $300. It's important to keep my positions in mind when reading my analysis. I'm only on the move for managing risk I've already taken on.
The bounce to $400+ left me with an opportunity to enter short on a smaller timeframe with a portion of this position. The subsequent retracement price action left me in a great place -- with long and short positions both running and bounded by profitable stoplosses. I will examine this trade below and illustrate why I've scaled in "early" on this retracement and why it gives me a slightly bullish bias on the smaller time-frame that may be carried through to higher time-frames.
The outcome of this bullish bias is illustrated in the yellow arrows on the chart above. This is not a prediction so much as perspective on the possibilities. I remain firmly neutral on longer time frames. Again -- in the event of continuation of the downward trend represented by the master pitchfork above -- I will stick to my stops, take my small profits on buys from below $300, and hunt for an even better entry on lower lows.
However, in the event that the retracement bottoms out here, and we head from here to higher highs, a reversal will be confirmed enough for me to define a new pitchfork. I will also include what that pitchfork will looks like below, again, under the assumption that the $327.53 retracement bottom holds.
As a yardstick for our expectations, I've singled out a critical level on the OBV in teal. The corresponding horizontals on MFI and price signal a divergence that could play out as is, still build in strength or simply "fizzle out". In order to bring the shorter time-frame bias up to this daily frame, we'd expect to violate such a level that spans before and after the price bottom.
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