BitcoinShort
$BTCUSD/BitFinex: Worse Case Scenario | $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
Traders,
A lot of my work consists of thinking out worse case scenarios. I pretty much look for rocks, count them, and then order the tests that overturns all the rocks. I simply act as the eternal pessimist, and let the facts prove me wrong. This way, there is already a contingency plan for the worse case scenario, and if all is well, I remain pleasantly assured.
In the case ofBTCUSD (here, I decided to look into a different exchange other than the usual Bitstamp where all my charts in bitcoin are derived, simply to look at the same market through a different exchange), the predictive/forecasting model I use put out three "worst-case scenario" targets I would look for in your approach, as you continue to slash your way through the jungle thickets.
The targets are:
1 - TG-1 = 404.96 - 25 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 386.21 - 25 AUG 2014
and
3 - TG-Lo = 329.42 - 25 AUG 2014
The reason I am looking at this exchange (Bitfinex vs. Bitstamp) is simply that I am interested in comparing the worse-case scenarios that I have posted recently using the same predictive/forecasting model when looking at the Bitstamp exchange.
First, a few technical comments.
1 - The H4 level implies a bearish impulse. The are 3 verifiable degrees in terms of wave count (whether using the standard Elliott Waves Theory (let's call it "SEWT") or the T.S. Hennessy new Elliott Wave technique (let's call it "NEWT") - note that the bearish bias is reinforced by a current BEARISH signal on the predictive/forecasting model.
2 - The first count at the top-left of the chart illustrates parenthesed numbers, and reflects a potential NEWT count. I say potential because a longer impulse would be able to verify its validity.
3 - Assuming that price as more space to fall, and that the current vawe-based situation puts us in the middle of a Wave-III SEWT count, then I would consider TWO potential scenarios:
-- a - ONE that would have price complete a A-B-C correction from the lower-achieved (5) point, crossing the steep overhead resistance symmetrically (see the S1 to S2 speculative projection);
OR
-- b - ANOTHER that would have price continue its downward course along its overhead resistance line and achieve a later geometry to conclude at Point-III (Point-III is defined as a strong bias based on the model's new and future R/S levels defined in TG-1 and TG-2.
In any way, at this point, this is all speculative game theory, looking for the multifaceted ways of getting killed and thinking up ways we would have survived by devising a plot before getting killed - Sort of a future retrospection (huh?).
As explained recently to another trader, I do spend quite a lot of my time looking at internal strength of the asset, once a direction and a target is defined. This is an important part of my trading methodology, as price does have some degree of mechanical nature, and looking for the piece and parts that would give its legs to get from here to there is really limited by the available geometries that repeat themselves across all times, charts and assets.
Let's see where this leads us. Feel free to peruse through the "Links To Related Ideas" for recent and older BTCUSD charts where this predictive/forecasting method has been applied quick satisfactorily.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
A lot of my work consists of thinking out worse case scenarios. I pretty much look for rocks, count them, and then order the tests that overturns all the rocks. I simply act as the eternal pessimist, and let the facts prove me wrong. This way, there is already a contingency plan for the worse case scenario, and if all is well, I remain pleasantly assured.
In the case of
BTCUSD (here, I decided to look into a different exchange other than the usual Bitstamp where all my charts in bitcoin are derived, simply to look at the same market through a different exchange), the predictive/forecasting model I use put out three "worst-case scenario" targets I would look for in your approach, as you continue to slash your way through the jungle thickets. The targets are:
1 - TG-1 = 404.96 - 25 AUG 2014
2 - TG-2 = 386.21 - 25 AUG 2014
and
3 - TG-Lo = 329.42 - 25 AUG 2014
The reason I am looking at this exchange (Bitfinex vs. Bitstamp) is simply that I am interested in comparing the worse-case scenarios that I have posted recently using the same predictive/forecasting model when looking at the Bitstamp exchange.
First, a few technical comments.
1 - The H4 level implies a bearish impulse. The are 3 verifiable degrees in terms of wave count (whether using the standard Elliott Waves Theory (let's call it "SEWT") or the T.S. Hennessy new Elliott Wave technique (let's call it "NEWT") - note that the bearish bias is reinforced by a current BEARISH signal on the predictive/forecasting model.
2 - The first count at the top-left of the chart illustrates parenthesed numbers, and reflects a potential NEWT count. I say potential because a longer impulse would be able to verify its validity.
3 - Assuming that price as more space to fall, and that the current vawe-based situation puts us in the middle of a Wave-III SEWT count, then I would consider TWO potential scenarios:
-- a - ONE that would have price complete a A-B-C correction from the lower-achieved (5) point, crossing the steep overhead resistance symmetrically (see the S1 to S2 speculative projection);
OR
-- b - ANOTHER that would have price continue its downward course along its overhead resistance line and achieve a later geometry to conclude at Point-III (Point-III is defined as a strong bias based on the model's new and future R/S levels defined in TG-1 and TG-2.
In any way, at this point, this is all speculative game theory, looking for the multifaceted ways of getting killed and thinking up ways we would have survived by devising a plot before getting killed - Sort of a future retrospection (huh?).
As explained recently to another trader, I do spend quite a lot of my time looking at internal strength of the asset, once a direction and a target is defined. This is an important part of my trading methodology, as price does have some degree of mechanical nature, and looking for the piece and parts that would give its legs to get from here to there is really limited by the available geometries that repeat themselves across all times, charts and assets.
Let's see where this leads us. Feel free to peruse through the "Links To Related Ideas" for recent and older BTCUSD charts where this predictive/forecasting method has been applied quick satisfactorily.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
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