$AUDJPY completed Bullish Bat

16. Juni 2016

It goes against the grain of current market rhetoric but the large Bullish Bat has hit it's lowest target (75.764) & showed a good reaction from it (as well as the other major points in the PRZ including a 161.8% ext.). RSI (14) shows bullish divergence potential here as well as this new low in price is not matched with a new low in RSI. The last 3 pivot lows are showing positive divergence in multiple indicators. We also appear to be testing the bottom of a channel or wedge (personal preference) which also supports the potential for a bounce here. Risk could be (tolerance dependent) at 75.528 while looking for at least a 38.2% retrace of pattern low (fibs on right side of chart). Bats tend to retrace hard, but this is a large pattern (this is a weekly chart) so definitely keep your expectations within those limits for timing.

In pink I have a potential Crab pattern. If we break the low & stops are hit then I would consider seeing if this is the pattern in play for gauging for possible re-entry. Best of luck! twitter.com/JohnConaway/status/742880218533138432

21. Juni 2016

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AUDJPY chart New possible scenarios on smaller TF (H4). Still a long play, IMHO. IH&S doesn't activate (textbook) until neckline is broken w/low of potential RS as SL. Good luck out there!

22. Juni 2016

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Blue AB=CD has completed at neckline with good reaction at noted confluence. Watching for retrace or continuation here with confluence as trigger/tell. Watching to see if Pink AB=CD remains valid

AUDJPY chart

27. Juni 2016

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With the craziness of Brexit I wasn't able to update this. To catch up, it looks like we went to complete the Pink Crab, and so far have completed the AB=CD portion of it & are retracing from that. I don't not show full completion of it yet so I still have it on the table.

However, what I am tracking now on a H1-H2 level is a possible Bearish Bat that activates with a close above 76.883 (and open gap closure), with a risk of below 75.066. Chart below. It could provide a nice trading opportunity up & then down as Bat's 'tend' to retrace hard. The retrace might send us to full completion of the Pink Crab, but one step at a time. :)

AUDJPY chart

28. Juni 2016

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AUDJPY chart Waiting for one of the B points to activate and or trendline. Maybe a few quick flips in between

29. Juni 2016

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Finally, may have our C point. AUDJPY chart Really like the look & movement with this. Green Bat may be in charge to take us to full Crab completion below $72. Stay nimble!

11. Juli 2016

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twitter.com/JohnConaway/status/752452921120288768