WYCKOFFIAN OUTLOOK ON AGCO

6. Jan. 2015

Possible completion of accumulation phase in AGCO. After a TSO (Terminal Shakeout, AKA Spring) on low volume, not ideal, we get a low volume TOS (Test of Supply) leading to a JTC (Jump the Creek) up move on increased volume indicating strength. Now getting a wide range retracement on relative low volume, indicating a lack of supply (the stock has been accumulated for the last couple of months, the "smart money" has succeeded). Now that the "smart money" has sufficiently accumulated the stock, "they" will now want to mark up the stock so that they can sell at higher prices. Ideally enter 1/3 of total position on open 1-6-15, in case there is a snap back rally to the first target @ $48.12 (wouldn't want to miss out on a quick move in case there isn't a ST of BUTC). Then enter 1/3 on a ST of BUTC. And finally the final 1/3 entry on NS low volume pullback after resistance at the first target. Exiting total position at second target @ $50.45, a level of significant support, likely to turn into resistance, at least temporarily. Initial stop on first 1/3 just under TSO, then trailing stops below each successive higher low.

Keep in mind that if supply suddenly comes into the market and drives price below the TSO on increasing volume, then that would negate the bullish outlook.