AAPL INC - AAPL - DAILY - Time to Sell - Love the Company but

9. Jan. 2015

I dislike the value in AAPL shares here. If you buy the whole company, you will fork over $653 billion and at the end of a great year like 2014 you will have earned (on a free-cash flow basis) $39 billion, a decent 6% return given the brand name and the technology but not enough return to be attractive for new investment. Granted, earnings will be reported in 18 days that may provide additional insights into margins, sales, and forecasts for the upcoming quarter. Since the iPhone 6 is still in the initial quarter of release, the quarterly numbers will be a surprise.

From a technical perspective, investors are taking profits and the trend is down from the highest close in November and the recent rebound brought AAPL shares back up to the high end of the standard deviation around the current down-trend. I view $100-$96 as "key support" from the past two earnings reporting time-windows. I would cover all shorts before the next earnings report as I don't wish to have that risk.

Tim 11:06AM EST 111.10 last AAPL Jan 9, 2015