The theory that a Pi Cycle Top might exist in the Bitcoin price action isn't new, but recently I found someone who had done the math on developing a Pi Cycle Low indicator, also using the crosses of moving averages.
The Pi Cycle Top uses the 2x350 Daily MA and the 111 Daily MA
The Pi Cycle Bottom uses the 0.745x471 Daily MA and the 150 Daily EMA
Note: a Signal of "top" doesn't necessarily mean "THE top" of a Bull Run - in 2013 there were two Top Signals, but in 2017 there was just one. There has been one in 2021, but on-chain analysis and macro TA is pointing to there possibly being another one in 2021 or early 2022. Regardless, combining the two indicators (Top and Bottom) means the MAs that converge first will likely give good indication of which will cross first in the next few years.
There is as much of a chance of two "bottom" indications occurring in a single bear market, as nearly happened in the Liquidity Crisis in March 2020.
Versionshinweise
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On April 19 2024 (UTC) the Fourth Bitcoin Halving took place, as the 840,000th block was completed.
The Pi Cycle Bitcoin High/Low indicator was updated to show this event.
Thank you for your continued support of this indicator.
Versionshinweise
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Follow me on X: @0creditsleft
Versionshinweise
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Thank you Crypto, for delaying a few minutes and allowing the UTC time to change to 4/20 Last cycle top 69K Cycle halving 4/20 Hahaha brilliant
@NoCreditsLeft Do you think the same model can work with alt coints who's movement and patterns have a high correlation with BTC, or is this BTC specific?
NoCreditsLeft
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@shanejts, the theory was BTC specific, but I'm sure some tweaks might work on other coins?
yozr23361
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@NoCreditsLeft, this tweak works on all old coins, i checked it out.
wmarson94823
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Does the code run on a daily basis? Meaning, at the end of the day (eg. April 11, 2021), would a "Pi Cycle High" print if all criteria are met? Or, is it based on a weekly print? Thank you!
NoCreditsLeft
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@wmarson94823, It really only works on the daily chart, but a code could print at any time as price fluctuates and the lines converge and cross. As with any indicator, it's only considered printed when the day closes, the lines have crossed and the trigger has been completed. This means the indication that a top or bottom has printed is burned in to the chart, and it would take the lines to uncross and cross again before it'll trigger again. As happened in the last Top and Bottom, it was close but not as exact as before - still epic locations to buy and sell, but they are just indications and should be only a part of your decision making.
grimbold
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Clean Code. No indicator is perfect but the pi cycle strategy is a good one to consider for long-term swing traders like myself. Kudo to u.
Dr_D_369
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BLX gives a lot better reading imo, and it just gave a cycle low signal.
NoCreditsLeft
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@Dr_D_369, Turns out BLX was a much more accurate call than this Pi Cycle indication, but I didn't write this to claim it was the best indicator, I just wanted to make the indicator so people could use it as part of their DYOR. Will have to look more at BLX, know nothing about it. On the Macro this indication wasn't far off...