Nexural Regime Matrix

Nexural Regime Matrix

A regime detection indicator that tells you not just where price is going, but whether smart money is confirming the move.

WHY I BUILT THIS

I got tired of staring at oscillators that just wiggle up and down without telling me anything useful. RSI is overbought. Great. Now what? MACD crossed. Cool. Is anyone actually buying?

I wanted an indicator that answers the questions I actually care about when I am trading. What regime is the market in right now? Is smart money confirming this move or fading it? Is this trend accelerating or running out of steam?

That is what this indicator does. It combines trend detection with delta analysis to map the market onto a visual regime matrix. You look at the dot, you see where you are, you know what is happening. No interpretation required.

Instead of giving you a single oscillator line and leaving you to figure out what it means, it maps your current position onto a visual matrix and tells you exactly what regime you are in. The indicator also tracks how fast you are moving through the matrix. A dot racing toward the Markup corner is very different from one that is stalling in the middle. This velocity component helps you understand momentum quality, not just direction.

THE FOUR REGIMES

This indicator classifies the market into four states based on Wyckoff methodology. Understanding these four regimes is the foundation of how this indicator works.

Markup is when trend is up and buying pressure confirms it. This is the easy money environment. Trend followers thrive here. Price is rising and the money flow confirms that buyers are in control. When you see the dot deep in the Markup quadrant with strong velocity, you are in a trending bull market with conviction behind it.

Markdown is the opposite. Trend is down and selling pressure confirms it. Shorts work. Longs get destroyed. Price is falling and sellers are clearly in control. This is where trend followers short and buy the dip traders get wrecked.

Accumulation is where it gets interesting. Price trend is still negative but buying pressure is emerging underneath. Smart money is loading while retail is still bearish. This often precedes reversals to the upside. When you see the dot move from Markdown into Accumulation, someone with deep pockets is buying the weakness. Pay attention.

Distribution is the mirror image. Price trend is still positive but selling pressure is building. Smart money is unloading into strength while retail chases the move. This often precedes reversals to the downside. When you see the dot move from Markup into Distribution, the smart money is heading for the exits while everyone else is still bullish.

The matrix shows these four quadrants with color gradients. The deeper into a corner you go, the stronger that regime. A dot in the far corner of Markup with high velocity is a completely different situation than a dot barely in Markup and stalling. The gradient intensity tells you conviction at a glance.

Accumulation and Distribution are the regimes that matter most for anticipating reversals. They signal potential turning points before price confirms them. This is where the real edge lives.

WHAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT

Three things separate this from typical regime indicators.

Zero-Lag Engine

Most indicators use moving averages that lag significantly. By the time they confirm a trend, half the move is over. This indicator uses Ehlers Instantaneous Trendline as the default smoothing method. It responds faster without adding noise.

The Ehlers algorithm was developed by John Ehlers, an electrical engineer who applied signal processing theory to financial markets. It filters out market noise while preserving the actual trend signal. The result is earlier detection without the false signals that come from overly sensitive indicators.

You also have ZLEMA and Kalman Filter options if you prefer those. ZLEMA is a zero-lag exponential moving average that compensates for inherent lag. Kalman Filter is an adaptive algorithm that adjusts its smoothing based on price behavior. Each has its own characteristics and you can experiment to find what works best for your trading style.

Smart Delta Calculation

Instead of just using volume, the indicator estimates actual buying versus selling pressure from each candle. This is not a simple calculation.

It analyzes where price closes within the bar. A close near the high suggests buyers won. A close near the low suggests sellers won. But it goes deeper than that.

It factors in the candle body direction and size. A large bullish body carries more weight than a small one.

It analyzes upper and lower wick lengths. A long lower wick means buyers stepped in and rejected lower prices. A long upper wick means sellers stepped in and rejected higher prices. These wicks tell you about intrabar rejection and intent.

It weights the result by bar size relative to ATR. A large range bar that moves significantly compared to average volatility carries more conviction than a tiny bar. Big moves matter more.

It amplifies the signal when volume is expanding. Increasing volume on a move suggests real participation. Declining volume suggests the move lacks commitment.

The final delta value combines all of these factors into a single reading that approximates order flow from standard OHLCV data.

I want to be clear about something. This is not true Level 2 order flow. It is not reading the tape or analyzing actual bid and ask volume. That data is not available in TradingView. What this does is extract the maximum possible information from candlestick structure and volume to approximate what order flow might look like. On liquid instruments during active sessions, it works well. On illiquid instruments or during thin trading, it is less reliable. That is a fundamental limitation of working with OHLCV data.


Regime Velocity

The indicator tracks not just where you are in the matrix but how fast you are moving. This is the velocity component.

A dot racing toward Markup is very different from a dot sitting in Markup but stalling. The first suggests momentum is building and the trend has legs. The second suggests the trend might be exhausted.

Velocity tells you if momentum is building or fading. It answers the question of whether you are accelerating into a regime or decelerating out of it.

The display shows momentum quality in plain terms. Surge means you are moving fast and accelerating. Fast means you are moving quickly. Steady means moderate movement. Slow means you are barely moving. Stall means you have stopped or are moving so slowly it does not matter.

Along with momentum quality, you see a direction arrow showing where you are heading. If you see Surge with an arrow pointing toward MKUP, you know momentum is strong and building toward the bullish corner. If you see Stall with no clear direction, you know the market is indecisive.

This velocity component adds a dimension that static regime classification misses. Two traders might both see Markup on their indicator. But if one sees Surge velocity and the other sees Stall, they are looking at completely different situations.

THE VOLATILITY FILTER

This might be the most underrated feature of the entire indicator.

The indicator uses ADX and ATR percentile to detect ranging conditions. When the market is choppy and directionless, it shows a Ranging state instead of forcing a regime classification.

Why does this matter? Because most losses come from trading in chop. You get long, it drops. You get short, it rips. You get chopped to pieces taking small loss after small loss while the market goes nowhere.

The volatility filter tells you when conditions are not favorable for directional trades. When you see Ranging, step aside or reduce size. This alone eliminates a significant number of bad trades.

The filter works on two dimensions. ADX measures trend strength. When ADX is below the threshold, the market lacks directional conviction. ATR percentile measures volatility expansion. When ATR is in the bottom percentile of recent readings, the market is quiet and range-bound.

Both conditions contribute to the ranging detection. You can adjust the thresholds to be more or less strict depending on your preferences.

When the indicator shows Ranging, the candles turn gray and the regime state displays Ranging instead of one of the four quadrants. This is a visual reminder to be patient. The best trade is often no trade at all.

THE CONFLUENCE SCORING SYSTEM

Behind the scenes, the indicator calculates a confluence score from zero to one hundred percent. This score combines multiple factors to gauge overall conviction.

Trend strength contributes up to thirty points. The stronger the trend value, the more points.

Delta confirmation contributes up to twenty-five points. When trend and delta agree in direction, you get confirmation points. When they disagree, you get nothing.

Volatility contributes up to twenty-five points. When ADX and ATR indicate trending conditions, you get volatility points. When the market is ranging, this component goes to zero.

RSI alignment contributes up to twenty points. When RSI confirms the trend direction, you get alignment points. When RSI diverges from trend, this component is reduced.

The final confluence percentage tells you how many factors are aligned. High confluence means multiple indicators agree. Low confluence means mixed signals.

When the market is ranging, the entire confluence score gets cut in half. This penalizes signals that come during unfavorable conditions.

The confluence score is displayed in the matrix panel. Use it as a quick gauge of conviction. A regime change with ninety percent confluence is more meaningful than one with thirty percent.

HOW TO READ THE MATRIX

The matrix overlay on your chart shows a colored dot representing your current position in regime space.

Bottom right green is Markup. This is bullish trend with bullish flow. Everything aligns to the upside.

Top right orange is Distribution. This is bullish trend but bearish flow. Price is still up but selling pressure is emerging. Smart money may be exiting.

Bottom left purple is Accumulation. This is bearish trend but bullish flow. Price is still down but buying pressure is emerging. Smart money may be entering.

Top left red is Markdown. This is bearish trend with bearish flow. Everything aligns to the downside.

The dot position within each quadrant tells you intensity. A dot in the far corner indicates strong conviction in that regime. A dot near the center indicates weak or transitioning conditions.

The color gradient in each quadrant reinforces this. Deeper color means stronger regime. Lighter color means weaker.

The trail behind the dot shows your recent path through the matrix. You can see where you have been and how you got to where you are. This context helps you understand if you are entering a regime fresh or have been in it for a while.

The axis labels show the scale. Trend runs from negative on the left to positive on the right. Delta runs from negative at the top to positive at the bottom. The plus and minus signs at the edges remind you of the orientation.

The quadrant labels at the corners show MKDN for Markdown, DIST for Distribution, ACCM for Accumulation, and MKUP for Markup. These abbreviations let you quickly identify each zone.

HOW TO READ THE INFO ROWS

Below the matrix grid you see several rows of information.

The first row shows NEXURAL branding, the current regime state in text, and the confluence percentage.

The second row shows velocity information. You see the momentum quality label, the direction arrow showing where you are heading, and the speed percentile.

The third row shows the raw values. TRD shows trend value with an arrow indicating direction. DLT shows delta value with an arrow. The final cell shows TREND or RANGE status.

The fourth row shows the engine settings. You see which zero-lag method is active and the lookback length, plus the current ADX value.

All of this information is available at a glance. You do not need to hover over anything or check multiple places. Everything you need is in one consolidated display.

HOW TO READ THE OSCILLATOR

The oscillator pane below your chart shows two lines.

The main line is the trend value. It oscillates roughly between negative ten and positive ten. Above zero is bullish. Below zero is bearish. The color shifts based on value and ranging status.

The secondary line is the delta value. It also oscillates between negative ten and positive ten. Above zero means net buying pressure. Below zero means net selling pressure.

When both lines are above zero and moving together, you have confirmation. Trend is up and buyers are in control.

When both lines are below zero and moving together, you also have confirmation. Trend is down and sellers are in control.

When the lines diverge, pay attention. If trend is positive but delta is negative, you have Distribution conditions. If trend is negative but delta is positive, you have Accumulation conditions. These divergences often precede reversals.

The end labels on the right side of the oscillator show the exact current values. Trend and Delta with their numerical readings. This gives you precision when you need it.

The fill between the trend line and zero creates a visual gradient. Green fill above zero, red fill below zero. The intensity of the fill corresponds to the strength of the move.

Dotted horizontal lines mark the threshold levels. These correspond to the Neutral Zone Width setting. Values between the thresholds are considered neutral.

When the market is ranging, the background of the oscillator pane turns slightly gray. This visual cue reinforces the ranging state.

HOW I USE THIS INDICATOR

I use this as a context filter, not as an entry signal. Let me explain what that means.

Before I take any trade, I check the regime. The regime tells me if conditions favor my trade idea or not.

If I want to go long but the matrix shows Distribution, I either skip the trade entirely or reduce size significantly. The indicator is telling me that smart money might be selling into this strength. Going long against that flow is fighting an uphill battle.

If I want to go long and the matrix shows Markup with Fast or Surge velocity, I have more confidence. Trend is up, buyers are in control, and momentum is building. Conditions favor my trade.

If I want to go long but the matrix shows Ranging, I wait. There is no edge in choppy markets. Let conditions clarify before committing capital.

I pay special attention to regime transitions. These are the moments when opportunity emerges.

When the dot moves from Markdown into Accumulation, I start looking for long setups. Smart money is buying the weakness. I want to be on the same side.

When the dot moves from Markup into Distribution, I start looking for exits on my longs or potential short setups. Smart money is selling the strength. I do not want to be the one holding when they are done.

When the dot moves from Accumulation into Markup, I know the reversal is confirming. Buyers took control and now price is following.

When the dot moves from Distribution into Markdown, I know the reversal is confirming. Sellers took control and price is following.

The velocity component helps me gauge conviction. If I see a regime change but velocity is Stall, I wait for acceleration before committing. The regime changed but there is no momentum behind it yet. That could be a false move.

If velocity is Surge and pointing toward a corner, I act with more urgency. The move has conviction and I do not want to miss it.

The Ranging state keeps me patient. When I see it, I know this is not the time to force trades. I wait for conditions to improve. The market will eventually break out of the range and when it does, the indicator will show me which direction and with what conviction.

I combine this indicator with my own price action analysis. I look for support and resistance levels. I look for candlestick patterns. I look for volume confirmation. The Nexural Regime Matrix tells me the context. My other analysis tells me the specific entry.

I never take a trade based solely on this indicator. It is one input among several. But it is an important input that shapes how aggressive or defensive I am with my positioning.

SETTINGS THAT MATTER

Let me walk through each setting and explain what it does and how to think about adjusting it.

Lookback Length

This is the main sensitivity control for trend detection. It determines how many bars the indicator uses to calculate trend values.

Default of fourteen works well across most timeframes. This is a good starting point.

Lower values respond faster but show more noise. If you set this to seven, you will see regime changes more quickly but you will also see more false signals and whipsaws. This might suit scalpers who need fast response.

Higher values are smoother but slower. If you set this to twenty or twenty-five, you will see cleaner signals but you will be later to regime changes. This might suit swing traders who can afford to wait for confirmation.

I recommend starting with the default and only adjusting if you find it too slow or too noisy for your specific trading style and timeframe.

Zero-Lag Method

This lets you choose between three different smoothing algorithms.

Ehlers is the default and what I recommend. It provides excellent noise filtering while responding quickly to real trend changes. John Ehlers developed this algorithm specifically for financial markets and it shows.

ZLEMA is a zero-lag exponential moving average. It compensates for the inherent lag in traditional EMAs by projecting price forward. It is slightly more responsive than Ehlers but also slightly more prone to noise.

Kalman is an adaptive filter that adjusts its smoothing based on price behavior. It is the smoothest of the three but also the slowest to respond to changes. If you find Ehlers too noisy, try Kalman.

Each method has its own character. I encourage you to switch between them and see which one feels right for how you trade.

Kalman Gain

This only applies if you select Kalman as your zero-lag method. It controls how responsive the Kalman filter is.

Higher values respond faster but are more sensitive to noise. Lower values are smoother but slower.

Default of 0.7 is a good balance. Adjust if needed.

Delta Smoothing

This controls noise in the delta calculation. The raw delta from each bar can be noisy, so we apply smoothing.

Default of five means the delta is smoothed with a five-period exponential moving average.

Lower values are more responsive. You see delta changes more quickly but with more noise.

Higher values are smoother. Delta changes are cleaner but slower to appear.

If you find the delta line too jumpy, increase this value. If you find it too slow, decrease it.

ADX Length

This sets the period for the ADX calculation used in ranging detection.

Default of fourteen is standard. Most traders use fourteen-period ADX.

You can adjust this but I recommend leaving it at fourteen unless you have a specific reason to change it.

ADX Threshold

This sets the level below which the market is considered ranging.

Default of twenty is standard. ADX below twenty generally indicates a trendless market.

If you want stricter trend requirements, raise this to twenty-five or thirty. The indicator will show Ranging more often.

If you want looser requirements, lower it to fifteen. The indicator will show trending regimes more often, even in weaker trends.

ATR Percentile Filter

This adds a second ranging check based on volatility expansion.

Default of thirty means if current ATR is in the bottom thirty percent of the last one hundred readings, it contributes to ranging detection.

This catches situations where ADX might be above threshold but volatility is still compressed. Low volatility often means range-bound conditions even if there is a slight directional bias.

Raise this value if you want more aggressive ranging detection. Lower it if you want less.

Confirmation Bars

This sets how many bars a new regime must persist before the indicator confirms the change.

Default of two means a regime must hold for two bars before it is displayed. This prevents single-bar whipsaws.

Set to zero for fastest response. You will see regime changes immediately but you will also see more false signals that reverse on the next bar.

Set higher for more confirmation. Three or four bars provides more confidence that the regime change is real, but you will be later to the move.

This is a classic tradeoff between responsiveness and reliability. There is no right answer. It depends on your risk tolerance and trading style.

Neutral Zone Width

This controls the dead zone around zero where the indicator shows neutral rather than bullish or bearish.

Default of 0.3 means trend or delta values between negative 0.9 and positive 0.9 are considered neutral.

This prevents tiny fluctuations around zero from causing constant regime flipping. A small buffer creates stability.

Raise this value if you want a wider neutral zone. Lower it if you want the indicator to classify regimes more aggressively.

WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES WELL

Let me be specific about where this indicator excels.

Regime classification is fast and accurate. You know immediately whether you are in a trending or ranging environment and what type of trend it is. There is no ambiguity. The matrix shows you exactly where you stand.

Delta adds information that pure price indicators miss. Seeing buying pressure build while price is still weak is genuinely useful. This is information you cannot get from looking at price alone. It gives you a window into participation and intent.

Velocity tells you about momentum quality. You know if a move has legs or is running out of steam. Two identical regime states can have completely different implications depending on velocity.

The volatility filter keeps you out of chop. This prevents a lot of frustration and losses. Knowing when to sit on your hands is just as valuable as knowing when to trade.

The visual matrix makes everything instant. No squinting at oscillator values trying to figure out what they mean. You glance at the dot position and you know. This speed of interpretation matters when markets are moving fast.

It works across instruments and timeframes. I use it primarily on index futures but it works on crypto, forex, stocks, commodities, whatever you trade. The underlying logic is universal.

The consolidated display puts everything in one place. You do not need to check multiple indicators or panels. Regime, velocity, confluence, values, and status are all visible at a glance.

WHAT THIS INDICATOR DOES NOT DO WELL

Let me be equally specific about the limitations. Every indicator has them and pretending otherwise would be dishonest.

The delta is an approximation. It is not true order flow from Level 2 or tick data. On illiquid instruments or during thin trading sessions, it can give misleading readings. If there is no volume, the delta calculation has nothing to work with. If the market is illiquid, the candle structure may not reflect actual order flow dynamics. This is a fundamental limitation of working with OHLCV data and no indicator can overcome it.

The confirmation filter adds lag. You will not catch exact tops and bottoms. The indicator waits for persistence before confirming a regime change. This reduces whipsaws but means you sacrifice some timeliness. If you set confirmation bars to zero, you will be faster but you will also get more false signals. There is no way to have both speed and reliability. It is always a tradeoff.

Ranging detection is not perfect. Sometimes choppy markets slip through and the indicator shows a trending regime when conditions are actually range-bound. Sometimes trending markets get flagged as ranging when volatility is low but direction is clear. No volatility filter catches every condition.

Sharp V-reversals are hard to catch. By the time the regime flips from one extreme to the other, you have missed the first part of the move. The indicator needs a few bars to recognize that conditions have changed. This is the cost of filtering noise. A more responsive indicator would catch reversals faster but would also give many more false signals.

The matrix takes up screen space. If you are running multiple indicators on a small screen, it can feel crowded. You can disable it and just use the oscillator pane if needed. But then you lose the visual regime mapping which is one of the main features.

This indicator does not tell you when to enter or exit. It tells you the regime, the momentum quality, and the confluence. It does not draw arrows or give buy and sell signals. If that is what you want, this indicator is not for you.

WHAT THIS INDICATOR IS NOT

Let me be clear about what you should not expect.

This is not a signal service. There are no buy and sell arrows. I do not believe in indicators that try to tell you exactly when to enter and exit. Markets are too complex for that. Anyone who claims their indicator can reliably tell you exactly when to buy and sell is either lying or deluded.

This is not a magic solution. It will have periods where it underperforms. It will miss moves. It will occasionally be wrong about regime classification. Every indicator does. Markets are driven by human behavior and geopolitics and randomness. No mathematical formula captures all of that perfectly.

This is not a replacement for learning how to trade. It is a tool that helps you see the market more clearly. You still need to understand market structure. You still need to develop your own setups. You still need to practice proper risk management. You still need screen time and experience. The indicator helps. It does not replace the work.

This is not holy grail. There is no holy grail. If someone tells you otherwise, they are selling something.

COMMON QUESTIONS

What timeframe works best?

The indicator works on all timeframes. I primarily use it on five-minute and fifteen-minute charts for intraday futures trading. Others use it on hourly or daily charts for swing trading. The logic adapts to whatever timeframe you apply it to. Lower timeframes will show more regime changes. Higher timeframes will show fewer but larger ones.

What instruments work best?

Liquid instruments with good volume work best. Index futures, major forex pairs, large cap stocks, Bitcoin and Ethereum. The delta calculation relies on meaningful volume data. On illiquid instruments where volume is thin or unreliable, the delta component loses accuracy.

Can I use this for entries?

You can but I do not recommend it as your sole entry trigger. Use it for context. Know what regime you are in and what the velocity is. Then use your own price action analysis or other tools for specific entry timing. The indicator tells you if conditions are favorable. You decide when to pull the trigger.

Why does delta sometimes disagree with price?

That is the entire point. When price is going up but delta shows selling pressure, that is Distribution. Smart money is exiting. When price is going down but delta shows buying pressure, that is Accumulation. Smart money is entering. These divergences are the most valuable signals the indicator provides.

Why is it showing Ranging when the market is clearly trending?

Check the ADX value displayed in the panel. If it is below your threshold, the indicator classifies conditions as ranging. You can lower the ADX threshold or ATR percentile filter if you want stricter trending requirements. Sometimes a slow steady trend will register as ranging because volatility is low even though direction is clear.

Can I turn off the matrix and just use the oscillator?

Yes. In the settings under Display, you can disable Show Regime Matrix. You will still have the oscillator with trend and delta lines and the end labels. Some traders prefer the cleaner look. You lose the visual regime mapping but the core calculations remain.

FINAL WORDS

I built this indicator because I was frustrated with oscillators that just showed values without context. I wanted to know what regime the market was in. I wanted to know whether smart money was confirming the move. I wanted to know whether momentum was building or fading.

This indicator answers those questions. It is not perfect. Nothing is. But it gives me information I find useful every single session.

The regime classification helps me avoid fighting the trend. When the market is in Markdown with strong velocity, I am not looking for longs no matter how oversold price looks.

The delta component helps me see when moves have real participation behind them. A rally with positive delta is different from a rally with negative delta. The first has buyers behind it. The second might be a short squeeze or exhaustion move.

The velocity tracking helps me gauge conviction. A regime change with Surge velocity demands attention. A regime change with Stall velocity might be noise.

The volatility filter keeps me patient. When conditions are ranging, I wait. The market will eventually move and when it does, I will be ready.

Use this indicator as context, not as a crutch. Combine it with your own analysis and your own rules. Let it inform your decisions, not make them for you.

Good trading.