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ZN1!: Short Term Upside Potential

CBOT:ZN1!   10 Jahres T-Note Futures
10 jährige US Anleihen haben heute mit 2,60% die höchste Rendite seit einem Jahr erzielt.

Ursachen für den Anstieg seit 2017 sind:

- Deutlich besser als erwartete globale Konjunkturdaten
- Reduzierung des QE in Europa
- Reduzierung der Anleihekäufe durch die Fed


Dazu kam noch das am 10. Januar 2018 verbreitete Gerücht, wonach China seine Käufe von US Anleihen reduzieren wolle. Die Chinesische Zentralbank hatte zuletzt 7 Monate in Folge den Anstieg der Devisenreserven auf zuletzt 3.150 Mrd. US Dolalr gemeldet. Eine Reduzierung der Anleihekäufe macht in diesem Zusammenhang wenig Sinn.

Gloabal haben Aktienmärkte teilweise mit kurzfristigen Kursrückgängen auf die Bloomberg.com Meldung reagiert. In der aktuellen Auktion von US Staatsanleihen war dann allerdings überraschend der Verlauf deutlich besser als erwartet. Die Kurse von US Bonds sollten kurzfristig steigen, die Renditen fallen.
Kommentar: Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous

Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/u-s-10-year-yield-climbs-as-boj-action-spurs-exit-speculation
Trade ist aktiv: Short Term Downside Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%



Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803
Kommentar: Short Term up:

Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction

Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-pare-climb-after-better-than-expected-10-year-note-auction-2018-01-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Trade ist aktiv: Intraday Reversal: Countertrend up sollte jetzt folgen.



Verluste verringert - Zinsangst nur kurzlebig

Die Angst an der Wall Street vor steigenden Zinsen hat sich am Mittwoch als recht kurzlebig erwiesen. Die wichtigsten US-Börsenindizes, die zuletzt Rekordmarken in Serie aufgestellt und damit an das starke Vorjahr angeknüpft hatten, konnten ihre ohnehin bescheidenen Verluste im Handelsverlauf eindämmen. Zum Schluss stand der Dow Jones Industrial noch 0,07 Prozent im Minus bei 25 369,13 Punkten - zwischenzeitlich hatte es der Leitindex sogar knapp in positives Terrain geschafft. Beim marktbreiten S&P 500 stand letztlich ein Kursrückgang von 0,11 Prozent auf 2748,23 Zähler zu Buche und der technologielastige Auswahlindex Nasdaq 100 sank noch um 0,23 Prozent auf 6662,66 Punkte.
Auslöser für die anfangs größeren Kursabschläge war eine Meldung der Nachrichtenagentur Bloomberg, welche die Kurse von US-Staatsanleihen unter Druck gesetzt und entsprechend die Renditen für die festverzinslichen Wertpapiere nach oben getrieben hatte - diese gewannen dadurch gegenüber Dividendenpapieren an Attraktivität. Unter Berufung auf informierte Kreise hatte es geheißen, China denke über eine Verringerung oder gar einen Stopp seiner Käufe von US-Staatsanleihen nach. Das Land ist der größte Gläubiger der USA, ein Stopp der Kreditvergabe durch China wäre ein schwerer Schlag für die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt - zumal in einer Zeit rückläufiger Anleihebestände der amerikanischen Notenbank und einer absehbar weiter steigenden US-Staatsverschuldung. Derweil rechnen die Experten von Capital Economics nicht mit einem weiteren substanziellen Renditeanstieg - auch wenn die jüngste Entwicklung zunächst noch weitergehen dürfte.
ROUNDUP/Aktien New York Schluss: Verluste verringert - Zinsangst nur kurzlebig | wallstreet-online.de - Vollständiger Artikel unter:
https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/10189625-roundup-aktien-new-york-schluss-verluste-verringert-zinsangst-kurzlebig
Trade ist aktiv: Reports on China slowing US debt buying could be based on wrong information, source says
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/reports-on-china-slowing-us-debt-buying-could-be-based-on-wrong-information-source-says.html
Trade ist aktiv: China shunning US debt is ‘not relevant’ and will not happen, economist says

China holds $1.2 trillion worth of U.S. debt — more than any other country in the world
If China stops or even significantly reduces the level of purchases, many warn that the U.S. economy could be affected
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/china-shunning-us-debt-is-not-relevant-and-will-not-happen-economist-says.html
Trade ist aktiv: Down side Momentum gestoppt:
Trade ist aktiv: Countertrend kann sich langsam etablieren:

Kommentar: US Renditen steigen nochmals an:

Trade ist aktiv: Vorläufige Einigung im US Haushaltsstreit möglich:

GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN
January 20 at 6:55 PM
BREAKING: McConnell schedules early Monday vote to reopen government

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced plans for a vote at 1 a.m. Monday on a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8. The move appeared designed to force Democrats to either agree to reopen the government without concessions on immigration and other issues, or to vote again for a government shutdown, which Republicans believe will hurt Democrats. The government shut down early Saturday morning after a four-week spending bill failed to gain enough votes to advance in the Senate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/government-shuts-down-after-senate-bill-collapses-negotiations-fail/2018/01/20/dca0d7e0-fda6-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0121-753am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.2cef
Trade ist aktiv: GEOPOLITIC, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

Government shutdown, day 2:

Signs of progress emerge
As the government shutdown hits its second day, Republicans are getting behind a plan to keep the government funded through Feb. 8.
A group of bipartisan senators is reportedly getting set to take a proposal to end the impasse to party leaders on Sunday.
ome Democrats are ready to give immigration concessions to Republicans, including President Trump's proposed border wall.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/21/government-shutdown-news-congress-trump-appear-to-make-progress.html
Kommentar: GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

House speaker adds pressure on Senate to accept spending bill and end standoff
President Trump wants the Senate to change its rules so a simple majority can pass a deal, and House Speaker Paul Ryan said the House is ready to accept a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “This shutdown is gonna get a lot worse tomorrow.” He has vowed to take up a new spending plan by 1 a.m. Monday and urged Democrats to allow a vote earlier.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_shutdown0122-desktoptablet%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.a49266656a0c
Trade ist aktiv: GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN

Moderate senators race to strike a deal to end government shutdown

Centrist senators racing to strike a deal to end the government shutdown expressed optimism Sunday that they were close to an agreement — but it was unclear whether they would be able to secure the support of leadership to end the impasse.

With the start of the workweek for many federal employees only hours away, a bipartisan group of moderate senators tried for an accord on immigration and federal spending they hoped would pave the way to reopening the government by Monday morning.
After meetings with each other as well as with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Charles E.
Schumer (D-N.Y.), there were no immediate signs of a major breakthrough. McConnell and Schumer also spoke with each other off the Senate floor Sunday afternoon.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), McConnell’s top deputy, sounded a pessimistic note early Sunday evening, predicting the government would remain shut down on Monday. “Right now yeah, yeah I do” think so, he said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0122-822am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.b05c9906b
Kommentar: GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

"No vote tonight": The key procedural vote on advancing the continuing resolution for February 8th will now be held at noon tomorrow.
http://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/government-shutdown-latest/index.htm
Kommentar: GEOPOLITICS, US GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN vs. MARKETS:
Senators strike a deal to end government shutdown
Senators have reached a short-term compromise deal to fund the government.
Democrats have the assurances they need on immigration and budget issues, Sen. Mark Warner says. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/government-shutdown-news-senators-reach-deal-to-end-shutdown.html

Wall St. hits record highs after deal to end U.S. shutdown
Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on Monday in the wake of a deal by U.S. senators to end the federal government shutdown.
Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 142.95 points, or 0.55 percent, to 26,214.67, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 22.68 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,832.98 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 71.65 points, or 0.98 percent, to 7,408.03. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-slightly-lower-as-us-shutdown-enters-third-day-1133067
Trade ist aktiv: US Zinsen aktuell stabil. Donnerstag, 14.30 Uhr US GDP

Trade ist aktiv: GEOPOLITCS, US GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

Trump erwägt US-Pass für 1,8 Millionen Dreamer
US-Präsident Donald Trump will 1,8 Millionen ohne Papiere in den USA lebenden jungen Migranten den Weg zur Staatsbürgerschaft ebnen.
http://www.20min.ch/ausland/news/story/Trump-erwaegt-US-Pass-fuer-1-8-Millionen-Dreamer-26324798
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