Ripple/Bitcoin: Bullish flag confirming CONTINUATION SOON?
Hello everyone, here is my TA on Ripple.
Looking at the current trend it's making, we are seeing a nice pullback/correction for its recent run up. Congrats longs!
At this point, it is ideal to figure out where the price is going for the sake of our assets, dips, entries, or even exits...
My TA tells me that the current pattern we are in now is a bullish flag, which would indicate a continuation of the recent bullish trend!
The pole is the left green trend line of the recent uptrend and the down trend is the channeled two smaller green lines. The next green line is the expected continuation pattern (Hey, green is good!). You will see that I use three indicators that I really enjoy using: RSI, CCI, and MACD. We are noticing quite an interesting pattern of an uptrend followed by a correction, then another uptrend! My analysis is trying to pinpoint if this will pullback further, or break out.
Judging by the RSI, you can see the light blue arrows that are pointing up indicate an uptrend and if we look at the recent up trend that began ~January 2nd, we see the RSI hit a bottom and then shot up. The even earlier uptrend on December 31st was a low RSI followed by a sideways trend for a few days. Price went from approximately 13k sash to 21k sash. Using this history, we also see that the CCI has hit a low and then came back up, as well as the MACD crossing and diverging to confirm the uptrend.
Now, we are reaching that same point, as the MACD is hitting a low both similar to the sideways trend on December 31st, 2017, and January 2nd, 2018 (Happy New Year!) On top of that, the CCI is also reaching super low to the same area as both of those lows on their respective dates. Now, it's a matter of: will this drop and go sideways for a few days or will it come down and make a new uptrend soon?
My first option is that if the flag finishes forming, it will hit bottom close the support/pressure line I drew which was ~16k sash. To confirm, I drew fibbonaci retracements from the peak of the uptrend to the low of the uptrend, and surprisingly (and confirming-wise), that area would actually be a .236 retracement point. The area that the price is very close to now is a .382 retracement point, so if that does break through, we may see it go to .236 retracement or ~16k sash. If not, we should expect a breakout now or very soon as all indicators point to a high level of exhaustion on the downtrend, where my aim would be ~35k sash.
My second option is that if the price breaks through to that retracement of .236, it will move sideways for some time, similar to the trend on December 31st...then we should expect a confirmation of a breakout/continuation to ~35k sash in the coming hours/days.
This may look like a cup and handle pattern, which would confirm bullish continuation, but the volume on the left half of the cup appears to be less than the volume on the right, and the handle appears more than 50% of the height of the cup. Therefore, I don't believe this to be the correct pattern.
My conclusion: If I were invested into Ripple NOW, I would hold and accumulate on the possible downtrend, waiting for a confirmation for the continuation (CCI passes 0, MACD crosses and diverges, RSI follows arrow up). If I were to enter Ripple (and I might), I would keep a close look to see if I could enter on the downtrend or simply enter early into the uptrend because it will go much higher. The reason why I would watch first, is because I need to witness a confirmation of a trend reversal from this bearish trend before entering...this will help avoid any unnecessary losses due to FOMO,FUD, and psychological barriers.
Overall, I am bullish! Best of luck and thank you so much for reading this!
Looking at the current trend it's making, we are seeing a nice pullback/correction for its recent run up. Congrats longs!
At this point, it is ideal to figure out where the price is going for the sake of our assets, dips, entries, or even exits...
My TA tells me that the current pattern we are in now is a bullish flag, which would indicate a continuation of the recent bullish trend!
The pole is the left green trend line of the recent uptrend and the down trend is the channeled two smaller green lines. The next green line is the expected continuation pattern (Hey, green is good!). You will see that I use three indicators that I really enjoy using: RSI, CCI, and MACD. We are noticing quite an interesting pattern of an uptrend followed by a correction, then another uptrend! My analysis is trying to pinpoint if this will pullback further, or break out.
Judging by the RSI, you can see the light blue arrows that are pointing up indicate an uptrend and if we look at the recent up trend that began ~January 2nd, we see the RSI hit a bottom and then shot up. The even earlier uptrend on December 31st was a low RSI followed by a sideways trend for a few days. Price went from approximately 13k sash to 21k sash. Using this history, we also see that the CCI has hit a low and then came back up, as well as the MACD crossing and diverging to confirm the uptrend.
Now, we are reaching that same point, as the MACD is hitting a low both similar to the sideways trend on December 31st, 2017, and January 2nd, 2018 (Happy New Year!) On top of that, the CCI is also reaching super low to the same area as both of those lows on their respective dates. Now, it's a matter of: will this drop and go sideways for a few days or will it come down and make a new uptrend soon?
My first option is that if the flag finishes forming, it will hit bottom close the support/pressure line I drew which was ~16k sash. To confirm, I drew fibbonaci retracements from the peak of the uptrend to the low of the uptrend, and surprisingly (and confirming-wise), that area would actually be a .236 retracement point. The area that the price is very close to now is a .382 retracement point, so if that does break through, we may see it go to .236 retracement or ~16k sash. If not, we should expect a breakout now or very soon as all indicators point to a high level of exhaustion on the downtrend, where my aim would be ~35k sash.
My second option is that if the price breaks through to that retracement of .236, it will move sideways for some time, similar to the trend on December 31st...then we should expect a confirmation of a breakout/continuation to ~35k sash in the coming hours/days.
This may look like a cup and handle pattern, which would confirm bullish continuation, but the volume on the left half of the cup appears to be less than the volume on the right, and the handle appears more than 50% of the height of the cup. Therefore, I don't believe this to be the correct pattern.
My conclusion: If I were invested into Ripple NOW, I would hold and accumulate on the possible downtrend, waiting for a confirmation for the continuation (CCI passes 0, MACD crosses and diverges, RSI follows arrow up). If I were to enter Ripple (and I might), I would keep a close look to see if I could enter on the downtrend or simply enter early into the uptrend because it will go much higher. The reason why I would watch first, is because I need to witness a confirmation of a trend reversal from this bearish trend before entering...this will help avoid any unnecessary losses due to FOMO,FUD, and psychological barriers.
Overall, I am bullish! Best of luck and thank you so much for reading this!
Kommentar:
www.tradingview.com/chart/2lwjmerN/
Hopefully the link above works. We may be about to reverse, as we are approaching the same area as last night where we saw the spike up. If this does push over 20k sash, it may cause alot of hype/fomo which could push us further up.
MACD crossed and is diverging, it is close to ending the channel or flag, rsi is coming out of the oversold, and the CCI is close to crossing 0.
In moments like this, it's important to not get shaken out, if there is no real reason to sell. BTC going up was unforeseen, atleast by me. What we can learn from this is, we should expect to do a TA on Bitcoin and the alt of choice.
It is reaching out ~16k sash...unfortunately I am off by about 15% of the genuine low because I can't exactly pinpoint where it will go. The wick to drive it down was manipulation, and clearly exhaustion.
Let us keep a close watch.
Hopefully the link above works. We may be about to reverse, as we are approaching the same area as last night where we saw the spike up. If this does push over 20k sash, it may cause alot of hype/fomo which could push us further up.
MACD crossed and is diverging, it is close to ending the channel or flag, rsi is coming out of the oversold, and the CCI is close to crossing 0.
In moments like this, it's important to not get shaken out, if there is no real reason to sell. BTC going up was unforeseen, atleast by me. What we can learn from this is, we should expect to do a TA on Bitcoin and the alt of choice.
It is reaching out ~16k sash...unfortunately I am off by about 15% of the genuine low because I can't exactly pinpoint where it will go. The wick to drive it down was manipulation, and clearly exhaustion.
Let us keep a close watch.
Kommentar:
Alright, well it seems that option #2 is the path that ripple is taking, and it is finding support at the recent resistance before the most recent rally!
Continuing watching this for break out, as MACD is coming closer to the 0 signal line.
Continuing watching this for break out, as MACD is coming closer to the 0 signal line.
Another useful tip: Do TA on BTC, because most alts are inversely related to BTC, so if BTC goes up, alts go down, and vice-versa.