$BTC.X #cryptocurrency #BTCUSD still looking for further

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
consolidation here. So far, BTCUSD             has been quite choppy with potential breakouts becoming targets for big reversals (false breakouts). In part, I think this is due to the reality that the most recent pattern developing is usually the most likely to be reliable. See the symmetric triangle in the chart, outlined by the purple line. Notice that on the "breakout", it was quickly sold into - more importantly, look at the volume . There is no volume confirmation of this breakout, which likely indicates that pattern is no longer valid.

From my perspective, the trend channel shown is currently the pattern we're in, which resembles more of a bear flag in this environment to me. Why? If the breakdown resolving with the blue box shown had held, I would be more biased to be bullish in this case, but what we saw was a solid bounce that transitioned into a low volume fall back into this channel. This implies the bounce was not sufficient and strong to result in any reasonable foundation from which we could break above the $13,000 resistance. Right now, I see the channel holding and either (1) more tests of the lower trend line , potentially a 4th time, which would seriously weaken support here or (2) further strength (above the midpoint of the channel) which could begin forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $13,000. I'll be interested once it breaks above here.

On the daily chart , shown below, note the difference in support zones shown. Also note that even if we were to breakout from the 4 hour channel toward/above $13,000, we still have the descending triangle resistance line as overhead resistance. Daily chart does point to long term consolidation, which could take many months.


I think the most likely event is we have this consolidation with brief periods of capitulation that stabilize into longer periods of sideways action. It's going to be choppy for a while, which is why I'll only look to trade on risk-limited entries (price reversal points from significant capitulation) or after strong support has built up and we begin to see more long term reversal signs.

In the meantime, if you're a trader it may be better to focus on the occasional breakouts in other coins, where the trades are driven more by trading activity then general environment (which is currently sideways/bearish in BTCUSD             and overall, in general... consolidating end of 2017). If you're not using Binance yet, you should give it a shot; rapidly growing platform with consistent updates and they're putting significant effort into building a stable, easy to use exchange. Using their token, BNB, lowers trade fees to 0.05% for some coins. If interested in registering, I would appreciate if you use my referral link: https://www.binance.com/?ref=10276631. It helps me a little and your fees are the same!
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