Bitcoin margin traders have been the primary cause of volatility, it would seem.
What I see here is that for the most part, bears have much less impact on the market than the bulls (I would have thought the reverse!). True, a big bear paw helped knock BTC off the high horse, but the next day bulls started a path of self-destruction. This battle played out for a bit, with the bears seeming more strategic and the late coming bulls having major FOMO. The early bulls falsely inflated the CCI which was easy to do the day after all those shorts opened.
The price continued to go downward as people took their profits before they weren't profits anymore and this caused a lot of bull nuts to be squeezed. Everyone decided to give it another shot and, you can see that as L&S activity stabilizes the market tries to return to normality...which has been a down trend but it's trying to normalize the 6-11K range.
The long bulls finally gave up in the last week of march, falsely *deflating* the market as they had done previously.
At this point every has had their ass torn from both directions and I'm lmfao at how all these smart people out smart themselves. I, having no financial eduction or even skills or responsibility, have also had my ass handed to me so .. This pot is also black.
Everyone had a good LOOONG as week to analyze the crap out of every micro & macro pattern possible and a lot that aren't.
As mentioned, the bears seemed more strategic and you can see that a large number of shorts were opened at the PERFECT time.. when the 100 MA is crossing the 200 .. AND the market is hitting nearly 200 on the CCI.
The rest of the week was mostly Joe Blow grabbing big handful of FOMO. He's the one who is going to cry elephant tears. :(
We're at a crazy pinnacle of resistances from literally every direction and that hammer is super crazy ready to pounce on a market full of bulls who have run out of steam driving their precious lambo straight into the ground.
Ironic eh?
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BTC just got clobbered by the 100 MA which has crossed the 200.. put the nail in the coffin.
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Also note the squeeze moment, MACDs an drop off in volume support this catastrophe in the making.
A large amount of shorts just opened at a very strategic opporunity. It's downhill till morning, the 15m, 1H & 4H MACDs have all crossed negative and a pile of red reversal candles surround a couple little green wannabes..
Additionally, the 100 MA beat BTC over the head AFTER crossing under the 200 MA. Currently trapped between the 100 from above the the 50 from below, I have a tight stop as well as a conservative take. I expect some more desperate efforts to keep this Ponzi scheme alive a bit long. :x
You never know though.. I have definitely seen BTC cannons shooting the moon.. but.. the masses certainly aren't jumping on this train again any time soon.. which leaves the miners..
THEY desire to save BTC at all costs, if they are still riding this dead horse. However.. ask yourself this..
You made 500 million bux last year selling off BTC you've been mining for years. Now the market is tanked, mining is retardedly difficult and expensive.
You have 500 million dollars..and maybe a few hundred thousand BTC left. Do you rebuy all the coins you sold, so you can watch your 500 million go to 10 million and 750 million and back again in the matter of a few days... or do you just pocket your loot, consider yourself lucky and forget all about wth a BTC even is?
I'd take the loot.
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BTW, if you look at the "Big Squeeze of '18" (TM) you will see that the liquidation of all the shorts (trying to keep bears drving all coins shortable to 0), popped stop losses on all the longs causing both to crash and the price to rise dramatically.
Summary:
Exchanges = $^3 Users = -$*leverage
Unregulated markets..you want to be the guy with the gun.
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As longs & shorts (L&S) flatline for a bit... BTC tries to return to 0 CCI.
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Ton of longs just closed.
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L&S War
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A bunch of shorts opened..a little price drop, more shorts open.. they're still open.
Right after, a bunch of longs closed... then there is a bad double candle where a bunch of longs open then close immediately on an unrelated price dip. This trigger more longs closing... panic selling is imminent I think.
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Game. Over.
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Next drop @ 22:15 EST :( lol
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Drop just started.
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"Headhunter" by Front 242 ;D
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How this battle works and why bears will win.. with image.
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Second wave of bears about to strike. Kiss your MACD good bye!
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Longs starting to close.. divergence increasing.
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Calm before the storm. As the MACD tapers down naturally, the now timid bulls will try again but with smaller amounts and tigher stop losses. Then the bears drop the HAMMER and the bulls will be quite depressed by the end of the 4H.
BTW, I'm not trying to contribute to the downfall of my favorite coins. I'm just trying not to get my ass tore up again and understand how all this bs works before I run out of equity, lol.
Maybe I"m wrong.. I've only been serious about TA since oh.. about the start of this false rally kicked off by the liquidation!
Maybe I'm not tho.. I have a very high certified IQ (Mensa+) and while it doesn't mean I have any common sense or make good decisions.. it does mean that I am very good at pattern identification, logic and problem solving.
Plus.. I've been debugging the cloud via New Relic charts for the past 18 months.. :D
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You can see the bull traps in the order book, lol. When longs close the sell wall doesn't move down.. they wait for the limit sell at the short resistance and pop the fresh shorts w/paranoid stop losses, lol.
This whole system is super crazy!
About 7 days after the "Great Liquidation of '18" (TM), I found a russian doll bot pattern in the 15m/1H/4H charts. I told my friends I found Morpheus. :D
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Asian markets just opened.. good morning bull trap!
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Nice fat green candle and no longs opened. Bear grabs nice position on the next bar. Image attached.
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Timid bulls in asia.. just sniffing the air. Kinda smells like rain..
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All RSI & CCI are on the floor. 1H MACD as well, 15M just peaked and 4H downtrend gaining momentum.. will the bears strike at the bottom of this 15m cycle, or wait for the next one?
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Earlier, before I started following this cycle.. I determined the longest the market will stand is about this time Thursday morning EST. In the meantime, there is no escape.. just putting more honey in the picnic basket.
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2 hours until next cycle.. accumulation phase. Time to rest for a bit.
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What's different about this year's cycle juxtaposed with previous yearly cycles? Answer: Capital gains tax. Good night. Don't stop loss your shorts, no pain no gain!
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Guess who's thinking about taking profits as they watch this catastrophe unfold? Not the ones sitting shorts.
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Game. Over. All evidence attached. Server is going to crash!
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04:20? That would be ironic, wouldn't it?
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Oh boy, look at that poor order book! This is going to be insane.
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This should be the last uncomfortable turn of the 15M MACD that the broke ass bulls can handle.
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The whole story! Before it happens and before you see the face on the reports on TV that talked moon talk! Images & detailed analysis of the L&S war in a UWHD image. Enjoy!
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Cascade failure will occur within this or the next hour's bar.. just in time to shock the market!
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L&S convergence..a bit of volatility then a good sized drop towards the 50 MA.
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L&S convergence, that was quick! A bunch of longs open, immediately a bunch a bunch of shorts swat them down. Price dropping, Bear shorting power x 2.
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Very little buying pressure. L&S divergence, bears on top again. Last downtrend lasted about 9 hours and started with a monster reversal HA candle. Support and resistance is very tight, don't get your stop loss popped by large contradicting double candles using market orders to spike the books!
Also, wave two of MACD "Trifecta of Death" is about to start.. look out!
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1D 50MA has made a strong curve away from the 200.. Game over!!!
Last time to take profit or short @ 8900 level is RIGHT NOW!!
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Next lane change should occur in the next 2 hours... 20:45? 21:15? Grab a short and wait for the big drop which you'll know has ended because it throws up a bean pole like "HEY, CYCLE COMPLETE! CALLING ALL SUCKERS..I MEAN.. BUYERS!"
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Imagine how that green bar guy feels... YES I'M GOING ALL IN!! LAMBOOOO!! <botsmack!> Tears rain.
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Ohhhhh...or the bot might be harvesting both sides of the SL coin!
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That spike just caused a bunch of long leveraged poitions to open... and closed a fair amout of bear SL spots. Hammer time.
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An interesting alternative pattern.. are they bull traps? Bear traps? Both?
Approaching the 200 MA with authority and the bulls just firmly took the upper hand. The short orders are probably going to taper off as fast as the longs start opening so I expect the 200 MA not to pose much of a problem.
Blood moon is over, et the lambos rain!
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It is not even funny! Here is the map to the game!! Grab you n00tz and blow your mind!
Best not to lose sight of the massive descending triangle pattern bullish breakout that occurred on the weekly chart...I think we will have a bullish week still.
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@DrDovetail, All MACDs are in the crapper. Also.. check this ugly little view..
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Life, like reactive programming, is all about re-interpolating data as it comes in and producing unbiased analysis. Trump knows this, do you?
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How in the world did I, who has never touched a chart until 10 days ago.. figure this out and no one else?
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Hm.. this won't post in my chart stream. I'll try here..
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About to experience two big phat candles in a row on the short charts. Popping both now timid bulls & bears stop losses in rapid succession then dropping a big market sale of actual coins (not leveraged.. hold on)!
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Just for the record... in case I'm right..
Currently:
18 followers!
163 rep, I'm a bad ass!
3818 views
28 published charts
65 monster likes!
My crypto ass - tore up! :D
First chart (ever): 20180322
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Who's going to buy X millions of dollars tomorrow..when it might equal X hundreds of thousands by Wednesday?
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Posting from another thread just for archives, because I made some good points I don't want to forget: :)
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Three possible scenarios:
1) The Ponzi pyramid has peaked
2) The miners have their cash cannons loaded and are waiting until literally moments before the death stroke to re-up
3) The artificial inflation caused by the massive artificially induced short squeeze is an attempt by the big exchanges to side-track the price until they can liquidate their BTC in an orchestrated way at which point they will allow the collapse
Questions:
1) Would you buy BTC right now, if you were not a risky fan boy hoping for lambo?
2) Exchanges couldn't process new accounts fast enough in January.. think those people are still trying to buy?
3) Do any normal people in your life have any interest in BTC? lol
Summary:
One more 20%+ crash will end this fairy tale.
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I only have two points to your lengthy reply:
1) That CCI spike implies a MASSIVE correction.
2) I am not arguing that MP deserves his ego.. I was actually thinking about it two days ago..like.. he seriously goes through the effort to paste his "I'm super magic" bs into every chart? lol. It's not like there is a signature field in the settings..that's frigging manual, hahah.
Oh, and no one, no chart and no market is perfect. The world is Chaos, so who in the F is going to be right all the time? Or not get target fixated? That is why I created my alternate BTC moonshot chart, because I stepped back and realized I was target fixated. However, the convergence of all MA & Gann fan resistance, failure to make a +45 degree break to the upside of a trend, low volume, artificial L&S liquidations pumping the price, market turbulance, geo-political turbulance, quantative squeezing and rising interest rates... do not point towards Lambo.