Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap ContractBitMEX
Beschreibung
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NOTE: I am not actually in a short position as I really dislike shorting bitcoin at times like this. It is a risky maneuver especially since Bitcoin often rallies hard to the surprise of many. I have just sold all my Bitcoin holdings which I have held since earlier this year.
2017 has been an amazing rally for Bitcoin with almost 100x growth. With the opening of futures markets and the continuing drama among the bitcoin community filled with uncertainty about the identity of Bitcoin, it appears a Wyckoff Distribution Event has been engineered by the new and incoming large interests.
This certainly does not spell the end of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has a history of 90% crashes after 10,000% rallies. It is hard to tell when and at what price Bitcoin will enter an Accumulation Event and reverse, but I will be sure to re-enter the market at that point. For now, it seems that Bitcoin's long rally will come to an end, and this is a nice point of exit for those who have made substantial profits this year.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Here's to a great and prosperous 2018 for all!
Extra Note: This analysis may very well fail if Bitcoin does not fall below the highlighted trading range again in the next couple of days!
Kommentar
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Took a day longer than expected, but we have a clear exit of the trading range now. This will be a long drop! both in price and duration. Sell the bounces...
Hi, this is an outstanding Wyckoff charting. I am only now getting to learn more about the method and i am consuming all the information that i can find like a sponge.
I am very curious about your opinion now, after a month has passed since your last update? To me, being a humble noob in the Wyckoff's method, it looks that we are still in the distribution phase and are yet to experience more decline. What are your thoughts?
salaryman
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@psykko, Hi psykko, the decline occurred shortly after the chart gets cut off.
the chart does not show beyond a limited timeline for some reason.
Bulls were able to push price up once more all the up to the last point of supply, but failed to break beyond the upper boundary of the trading range.
BTC dropped to as low as 8,500 USD and is now still trading around 10,000USD-11,000USD range, down 3-5k from the trading range shown in this chart!
In fact, it seems like a Wyckoff accumulation of similar scale is taking place between 8k and 13k through all of January :)
psykko
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@salaryman, thank you for your thorough explanation. The current circumstances are very fruitful for learning.
thefascinations
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Thanks for the analysis! I’m gonna be out of BTC for the time being
casstete
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Good choice , I am out of BTC but I am hopeful for the flow starters to hold like Ripple and my favorite now is NEO . They will not react equally to a BTC drop .
But in how far are you considering institutional trading which is about to kick in though it's been here a few days it will not kick in until new year . Central Banks are suppose to be readying themselves to invest in crypto .
BTC is technically obsolete & hence when it comes to semi rational valuation Bitcoin is dead , the fork coming now will potentially force BTC down & let BCH , Ripple & others rise substantially or ... ?
I believe we in legitimisation period and that these are the lows we shall see hence forth never to be seen again as if we see money in Crypto
it's also in a Anti proportional increase .. the $$ influx
Good 4 you on your BTC ! leave some crumbs in the viable alternatives , I believe minig is finished soon and hence they will either evolve very fast or die just as . Neo will be adopted by Billions soon ..
Whats your take
salaryman
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@casstete, I’ve been in NEO since $4 usd and plan to hold it. It’s a very small holding compared to my full portfolio. I agree that some coins will survive this crash but they will likely all take a hit.
I believe what’s coming will be remembered in similar scale to dot.com crash. Will buy back when people start to talk about the great crypto crash. Dot.com was about 3 trillion at the peak of the bubble, and crypto was about 0.8 trillion at the peak. Many say that it shows crypto has a long way to go before being considered a bubble, but I don’t see crypto to be as far reaching in potential as the Internet was, so this will probably not end nicely. But long term we will go back up again, so I hope to re enter much later on when the hype is over and the dust settles :)
casstete
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@salaryman, thats the crucial bit , did the institution pump prior to .com bust .... First they went in full throttle then they pulled out .
They don't seem to have done that just yet and that has to account for quite a bit more.
We went in short time from 200 billion to 600 billion .. down to 500 and up again now .
Does this reflect the Market cap of .com in relation . Crypto has a revolutionary element that is equal to .com , the decentralised corruptible ... . com offered the exchange of info crypto now also because censorship is a real issue and bypassed by blockchain ... Maidsafe I still waiting though they just kicked off ,, they provide some tech in that respect
casstete
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@salaryman, I believe you can buy everything now , for a period probably until march everything will be going up regardless of it's actual technical or economical value . We entered the legitimisation phase , blind period where crypto is accepted and hence moeny is flowing in fast .
I believe we will not see much lower lows than seen during holiday period simply because the selloff will be compensated by new $$ and alot of it as seems , besides the banks making their own cryptos & nations .
But I also a firm believer that mining & blockchain for financial exchange will come to an end , they can not possibly compete with the likes of NEO with no transaction fees and instant transfers .
BTC is dead ... it is showing it also , money is diffused into the ALT's ( Ripple obviously being boosted by bans themselves so as to control it's future )as it seems ( BCH is curious beast following BTC step by step now )
Ripple caught me out it moved to fast even though I predicted that myself I didn't see it blow past every resistance as if there wasnt any .
NEO is what i believe in unfortunately I only have 10 as I bought in late at 40$ not 4$ like you ; )
salaryman
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@casstete, seems you might be right. But I’m still skeptical of BTC itself. Alt growth is too attractive and most basic exchanges offer some alts too. Alts time to shine?