Total solar eclipses have historically been viewed as omens that bring about death and destruction. Though I never follow astrology in my chart analysis , North America will have a total solar eclipse on Monday. On the same day I'm waiting for a start of devaluation in gold's price.
We are clearly in a range on gold's daily chart since 15th March 2017. It's the 3rd time we tagged the top of this 80$ range at 1294$. The top was tricky again as usual. Banks are not making nor bulls' nor bears' life easy: we almost tagged the top of the range on Aug.11. but after a 2-days-drop price reversed like a back test of the triangle. On Friday when everybody got super bullish waiting for a breakout and a rally to 1340$ price just got rejected from the range top. It's not just a simple doji, or a small red candlestick : it's a shooting star close to a daily minimum.Though the low and the close are not the same, it's a strongly bearish candlestick where bears were able to reject the bulls completely plus they were able to push prices even more by closing below the opening price. I would have liked to see a key reversal didn't happened though. With a key reversal we could have dropped without any bounce tomorrow. With the shooting star I think bulls will try to push price one more time tomorrow but I will sell every pop. Timewise the reversal is just perfect. Friday was the daily cycle top. MACD just wants to turn down and RSI printing bearish divergence. The other interesting thing the top of the range. We are reversing from 1293-1303. This level was the election reversal level at last year November.
The drop into the DCL will be very important. If we test back the lower level of the range in the next few weeks the chance is high the next daily cycle will top again near to 1300... Price might stay in the range even for months. We need a strong momentum to break out of it significantly.
The next important level is 1267,5. It was the back test of the triangle. When we break below it the decline will accelerate as the bulls will realize something is wrong and more and more people will notice the range. That's why the 3rd tag is always important. This is usually the lowest risk of trading in the range. When we break 1267,5 I will delete the triangle's upper trendline from the chart because from that point it's just a noise.
The following level is the previous tag of the 100 SMA at 1252$. A few newsletter writer was calling that a DCL. I think the DCL is still ahead of us. Friday's volume also supporting the decline. We had a huge volume.
I'M looking forward to see a bottom at the beginning or middle of September. After that point we can decide what's next. I will be monitoring closely the drop.
SHORT ENTRY AND SHORT ADDING POINT (especially if we bounce on Monday)
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The levels mentioned in the idea (with some more divergencies) :
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Swing high in place.
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Th key level to break is 1281,73$.
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Daily candles are crawling on the 10 EMA. I have seen this many times before the breakdown.
I will be sitting on my deck in the backyard watching the total eclipse for two full minutes while simultaneously monitoring gold to see how it reacts.
@oetcap, Eclipse was awesome. Looking forward to next one in seven years.
popshvt
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They want to phycho out bears by time the more time we stay at this level I am more convinced it's near and if bulls can breakout we should already see it
Zaiteku7
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@popshvt, agreed. Bull volume is failing at lower & lower highs. Overnight should be revealing. We just saw a 3rd attempt at 1297 (dec contract) fail and drop. When this narrow range is broken it will be a fast market. I'm short looking for a failure below 1287 overnight to confirm the drop.
popshvt
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@e12568, Good luck!
SandiAlexiz
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@popshvt, Somebody saw the Yellen speech in advance. Leaks galore. Big push up in GDX in final hour of trading, ridiculous up volume in final 12 minutes of trading. Is this a repeat of July 26 FOMC minutes leak? Let hope not.
SandiAlexiz
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If the US Dollar had not dropped today, we would definitely be at 1280. Let's see if the gold bulls really want to take this fight into tomorrow. They're having a hard time getting to 1292.
popshvt
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i entered another short at 1288
:)
gokhankoch82
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you couldnt drop the gold unfortunately, dont forget if something do not fall, it goes up..