FX:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
12489 257
I told you a week ago there is a big chance this is going to be a second Brexit event...
I got a lot of attack again but at the end of the day it was a nice long trade , and it is still a nice long trade.
I'm hunting for big gains. I'm not interested in the short term 5-10$ gains in gold . This vehicle is so volatile that more often than not you lose if you try to catch the small movements. All those who started to short gold yesterday or the day before yesterday were in a 20-25$ profit before the US election. If they went to bed without closing it they will have to face with a monster rally and a reseted account....

1. My COT analysis worked well. The COT was bullish not bearish as a few beginner trader thought.
2.The blue descending triangle's target price at 1241 was completed, so all the traders who went short at 1305$ was just lucky because trading the back test of the breakdown level after price had completed the target price counted from the pattern not working in most of the cases.
3. We tested back and broke marginally below the 200 SMA again.
4. We broke above the bear market trendline from all time tops.
When gold is changing the direction after a DCL or a HCL the direction change is very fast and the bounce is huge.

This is the problem with the shorts at the beginning of a new intermediate cycle.
If you go short at the new IC you set your brain to the short trade and simply cannot adapt when the short trade is not working and you should switch to long . Unfortunately the human brain is working like that . A few traders were just stopping out and not watching this vehicle for a while. The other type of traders are forcing the short or worse jumping into revenge short and reseting the account. This is not going to fall for a while and the sub 1240$ prices are off of the table.

The long traders have now the chance to ride this bull till the end of this rally. This rally has at least 100 and maybe 200$ from here. Many are asking the TP. I cant tell you. It can be 1450, 1500 or 1550. We will see how price is moving now you don't need to set any take profit.

I would like to say that the hardest part is behind us, but unfortunately that's no true. The hardest part is coming now in our life: we have to ride the bull and watch how our account is growing and growing and we must not slaughter the gains till the end of the cycle.

As of today we broke above the blue triangle's upper trendline I can guarantee that a higher high (above 1375$) is coming soon.

Kommentar: We just left behind someone at the 1280Station...
Had to go back with the goldtrain.
Banks will never lose?! Someone always saving them...
Kommentar: As we took out the lows at 1240 - which supposed to be an ICL - I've started to hedge my gold position at 1237-1240$. We entered into the panic selling.
The 1240 was only a DCL with all signs of an ICL. We are going to have the final ICL in the following 2 weeks.
Kommentar: Just a few thoughts.
I started to long gold in the triangle when it broke down during a few thousand contract dump in a night (Oct.04.). (1.)
We broke down and I was long from the exact bottom in 7 ideas. (2.) I also opened long positions there. When we broke the resistance at 1275$ I posted 2 follow through ideas for the rally of the breakout. (3.) So from the 1245 level we rallied 90 $ to 1337 on the election night. ( It was not posted on the next day as the pictures shows below...)I posted one more follow through idea on the election night at 1316$. All the circumstances looked like the Brexit event.
But this idea was not a new long idea. It was a follow through for the previous longs, what I started to hedge in real time at 1237-38$ which I also posted. It was the mental stop.
Actually we rallied 90$ with not realizing the profits.
Somehow I need to update these posts as we have so much comments that it's really hard to go through these. So based on a long/short idea later I post new long/short ideas which is not a new long entry it's just an update with a new picture.
Kommentar: As I can set only a long/short/neutral idea, in the future at the bottom of the post I always set the idea as:
NEW LONG/SHORT ENTRY ( this is the point where I enter or add to the position)
SHORT/LONG UPDATE (this is just an update on a previous idea but I dont suggest to enter or add to the position)
Kommentar: I've started to close slowly my hedges (25-30%) today at 1206-1208$.
I think we are getting close to the bottom.
I don't rule out a breakdown below 1200$ early next week but we are very close to the end of the decline.
I'm short Silver and Gold right now. I was short on platinum and those targets have been met! I published this idea along with ideas for silver and gold about three weeks ago and all of those ideas are playing out nicely. just recently, right after I published those ideas (3 weeks ago), chartwatchers said that silver and gold would make there largest move of the year within the next two weeks while I was saying no way, we need a pull back.. I have capitalized nicely on this pull back and hope others who saw my ideas did the same.. Good luck trading!

+1 Antworten
@Alec40, LMAO. We were riding 200$ during the last 2 months. Called 2 daily cycle tops and 1 daily cycle bottoms. So it was 250$ on my private account. What the heck are you tslking about it was good to short gold???? You made 20$ on your shorts. Wow. Congratulations!
Alec40 chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, Actually, I never published an idea regarding Gold, however I did trade it on my own time, Gold made a $50 move to the down side shortly there after as you were calling for the biggest gains of the year. it was a $50 move, not a $20 move and I would prefer to make that instead of losing it any day of the week. I'm not talking as if your a bad trader, teacher etc however you made a really bold statement regarding gold and silver a few weeks back. We are all wrong once and awhile as that is the business but for you to basically say I was crazy for shorting SLV and making such a BOLD statement as "Gold and Silver to put on the biggest gains of the year in the next 2 weeks" shows me that maybe your judgement is clouded when it comes to an asset that you love so much. Gold and Silver are great, I own a ton of it and I trade it quite frequently however the fact is, Gold and Silver are STILL in a downtrend and until that changes, a professional would not be making any long term bets on its price or stocks aside from holding the physical metal itself, which in that case the price in currency is irrelevant.
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Alec40 chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, Had you shorted Silver when I alerted it, you would have made almost 7% in less than a month mean while back at the ranch your followers lost 7% so that makes up for you "$250 run"
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Alec40 chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, I even stated in that idea, if you are a conservative trader then you may want to hold off and short at the 18.50 as opposed to the Bearish Cypher pattern completion entry of 18.00. I traded it both ways and had you been conservative and took that advice, you could have nearly a 10% gain on that trade! Nothing goes Straight up.
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An very nice example of speculation sentiments index.
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chartwatchers sniperforex
@sniperforex, I'M just not sure if they want to run the stops on Monday night. But the reversal will come on Monday or Tuesday the latest.
Ive been saying to for a long time that the commericals are bearish on GOLD as according to the COT. I specialize in COT analysis. I have built many indicators in TV for COT analysis. I continue to be bearish.
+3 Antworten
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