GOLD - Long or Short?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
431 2 19
This business is so easy.
Price can go to 2 directions up or down. Why people are still loosing money ?
Because they forget the money management - opening too big positions- and because we are programmed to the corrections: "price will come back".

I will post today's gold             chart as neutral because I think noone can make a 100% sure statement that gold             is going up or down next week.

The reasons for the short:
- COT is getting very bearish . Commercial short positions are above 300.000. Usually this number signs that a decline is starting.
-Blees rating 5. Same as above. At the last Intermediate top blees rating was 21. Price was falling for weeks.
-Price and MACD , TSI, RSI divergences
-MACD, TSI had crossed over
- Key reversal candlestick on the daily chart on Friday.
- Price closed below the 10EMA on Friday

Signs supporting long:
- Pennant pattern - in 95% of the cases it is a continuation pattern After a breakout from the pennant we should have the same rally as we had before the pennant (150-200$)
- We are still having higher highs on the daily chart
- Friday is the first day when we closed below the 10EMA. 20EMA haven’t been tagged for weeks
- Price could run for 2-3 weeks with the big number of commercial shorts
- We had higher high on Friday. But there is no lower low yet.
- It’s a bull market. The bear is finished. We are in the initial phase of a starting bull market. It’s a junior bull. Surprises are coming to the upside. This phase of a bull market is very aggressive.
There is noone –not even banks - who can pick an exact top for 100%. Of course there will be traders catching the top of the initial phase but those traders are just lucky.
- Even if a decline had started on Friday. It’s not going to be an easy short. More of the short traders will lose money on this short trade than win.
- The maximum you can make on this short is around 100$. What will you do if gold             makes a gap open on a Monday morning based on geopolitical events and price is running to 2000$ while you are waiting for a pullback? Your account will be destroyed.
- The downway is limited now. There is a lot of room to the upside.

So I will stay out of this gold             short. This is very dangerous now.There are plenty of opportunities in the energy sector and on the stock market to make money. I’m not going to give even a penny to the banks.
I will post charts if I see any upcoming opportunities. But I will enter gold             only if I see a long opportunity.

If the Fed doesn't increase rates, as predicted, would you also consider that to be a supportive sign to buy?
I'm trying to stay out of gold now.
When we've broken out of the pennant it should have started to go up above 1300 and start for a decline from there.
Instead of it it's started to form a wedge.
I think noone knows for sure where it is going now. It should start a decline soon, but it's too simple without taking out the short's stops above 1284...
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