Dukascopy

XAU/USD daily overview

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
Gold             began Tuesday’s trading session in a calm manner, thus fluctuating between the 100– and 200-hour SMAs for several hours. However, the bearish sentiment eventually took over, and the pair dashed through the 100– and 55-hour moving averages, the weekly and monthly PPs             , as well as breached the dominant two-month channel up. As a result, the yellow metal closed the session with a 1.19% decline.

The rate bounced off the weekly S1 on Wednesday morning and was moving towards a massive resistance cluster formed by the previously-breached levels. It is likely that this area is reached today for the pair to make a retracement from the bottom channel line; however, its subsequent fall is unlikely to change the overall price level within the following 24 hours.
Kommentar:
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Downside risks were dominating over the XAU/USD exchange rate on Thursday. After failing to move above the 1,330.00 mark mid-session, the yellow metal started to gain bearish momentum until the monthly S1 at 1,309.38 was reached this morning.

Given that the pair remained near the 38.20% Fibo retracement line today, it is likely that a bullish reversal towards the 23.60% line occurs. This area is also reinforced by the 55–, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the monthly PP in the 1,327.30/1,337.50 range. Technical indicators are likewise supportive of this scenario, as they signal that a movement upwards should be due soon.

On the other hand, a slight period of depreciation down to 1,300.00 should not be discarded.
Kommentar:
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As previously expected, the yellow metal was driven by upside risks on Thursday. The scope of this move, however, was not in line with the forecasts. After testing the monthly S1 at 1,309.45 for a brief period of time, the pair managed to reverse and push up to the 55-hour SMA and the weekly S1—area where it was trading early on Friday.

Technical indicators are neutral about the pair’s possible direction in this session; the overall tendency, however, should remain north. If the aforementioned resistance area is breached, traders could expect a continuous appreciation towards the 23.60% Fibo and the 200-hour SMA near 1,335.00; meanwhile, losses are unlikely to exceed the 1,309.30 mark.

By and large, lack of fundamentals today might result in a period of consolidation.
Kommentar:
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The 55-hour SMA was pressuring XAU/USD from the upside for the whole session on Friday. However, the pair remaining close to this line did suggest that an upside breakout might be due in the nearest time.

This necessary push for bulls occurred during the Asian session when Gold shot up by 0.53% in one hour up to the resistance of the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP near the 1,325.00 mark. It is likely that the pair consolidates for a brief period of time prior to re-gaining its upside momentum and pushing even higher in this session.

Gains should be capped circa 1,335.00 where the upper boundary of a three-week descending channel, the 200-hour SMA and the 23.60% Fibo retracement line are located.

In case the 1,325.00 mark is not breached, the pair is expected to find support at 1,310.00.
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