Ewcharter

XAU-USD-Chart Update

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
101 0 0
Purple Arrow:

To Sell:

Top Zone: 1,317.00.
Target Shell (*) Zone: 1,275/1,280.00.
Entering Selling Point/R.
R/R Ratio: N/R.
Technical Math (*)Probability: 60%.

This scenery means the extension of wave iii             of C or 3, down to 1,275/1,1278.00.It also clue with a Daily time frame Analysis that ´d be targeting 1,280 zone. I have no entering margin on my vias yet.

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Red Box (The alternative):

To Buy:

Bottom Zone: 1,306.09.
Target Shell (*) Zone: 1,275.00-1,278.00.
Entering Buying Point:N/R.
R/R Ratio: N/R.
Technical Math (*1) Probability: N/R.

This scenery has vanished the buy signal I had this morning. That is because the TARGET SHELL (*1) zone had an inferior limit of 1,308.55 (in my vias). That has been broken, so mathematically speaking it has no chance. Despite that, and because the difference is too tight, I´m considering it as an alternative.
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(*) Target Shell:

is a formula that projects upcoming targets, in function of the Wave Pattern evolution + Fibonacci numbers reached+ psychological resistance and support levels taken.

(*1) Technical Math Probability :

It considers only technical Analysis concerns. Tested for a significative sample of an infinite             7.30% population.
Being the highest of 90% (until now), and the lowest of 10%, the 10 % remains belongs to fundamentals (*2).

(*2) Fundamentals:

Instead the common assumption, there is consistent statistical evidence that the Waves of social mood ( EWT             -2.03% ) determine fundamentals and those cases that news drive quotes it happens for a short time, and rapidly the Wave Patterns retakes and fulfills itself.
However, is a fact, that in intraday trading, fundamentals can and do activate Stop Losses’ damaging short strategies.
That´s why they have the remains 10 % of chance to complete 100%.

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