All I can say : we are almost there. Gold bounced off the 200 EMA today again. While the dollar was dropping hard today
gold just printed a weak bounce . It's the 4th bounce from the 200 EMA in 5 weeks. So while many people think it's bottoming in a double , triple , quadruple bottom, I don't think it's bottoming. It seems to me gold is forming a triangle on the daily chart. It's just waiting for the dollar to finish its correction when it bounces again gold will break down from the triangle below the 200 EMA and later the 200 SMA. That will trigger our panic selling .
I have 2 scenarios for the breakout: 1.We might break above 1289$ first to suck in all the rest of the goldbugs from the sidelines. 2. We just simply break down the triangle
I counted the target price from the triangle's height ( green) : it's at 1200 and our very important blue trendline is at 1200 too. If we assume the triangle is a continuation pattern we can count the target price from the prior down trend (blue dotted line) it's a bit deeper at around 1175$.
Time will tell how this plays out.
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Big dollar drop today again
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Weak bounce in gold again. We might not even get the breakout of the triangle....
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Not much of a change, still in the triangle... But!
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The US GOVT 10 YEAR BONDS bouncing hard today. It's inverse correlation with gold.
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The key is 1288$. If the Friday breakout is not holding in the Asian session a false breakout at this point could be a complete down reversal.
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Playing out as expected. It was a bull trap.
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Before we get too excited I would like to show you we are still in the triangle:
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Maybe just another bankster trick before thanksgiving.
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Yes. It's holiday in the USA tomorrow. So don't expect a big volume breakout before the holiday. My guess this is a perfect spot to dump gold down when every bull bought and every bear stopped out before the holiday in the American session
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Volume was low today. Tomorrow it will be lower. So you don't need to be a big fund to push it down easily to 1270 again . And I guess they will do it.
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Very strange gold was not bouncing much harder on that USDJPY drop
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It seems the goin' to the moon party is cancelled. Gold is not bouncing even with the falling dollar.
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It’s getting interesting...
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Broken.
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Clear significant breakdown.
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But as I’m holding a big ,khm sorry no: horrible position Im going take profit on some of the position here at the 200SMA
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ALL OF YOU ARE HEAVILY INVESTED THIS IS THE TIME TO BOOK SOME PROFITS.
We will breakout to the upside , the triangle will be broken. If gold would break down , of already did. but it didn't happen so no new lows were made. Between 1300 and 1350 I see a very big potential.
NorthLumberJack
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I think gold touches that major trendline then bounces.
UnknownUnicorn540299
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Above 1273 and below 1305 is still watching paint dry ;)
Zaiteku7
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@viking83, I agree. This is just whipsaw and directionless territory. A great way to wipe out your account trying to trade a directionless market. I'm watching for a $1,260 base then trade the following strong up trend back to $1,350+
Nightstar
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@viking83 Nope, you're only half right! GOLD has to break 1260. Anything above 1260 is meaningless. A break below 1260 would signal a failed cycle and should FINALLY push Gold down into an ICL, just in time for FOMC.
This is the preferred scenario which should hopefully re-set Sentiment and push Gold out of this longterm consolidation in 2018.
UnknownUnicorn540299
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@Nightstar, You are then in the major herd-crowd thinking (gold will do same as last year). My take is if you carefully analyze the cycle overlays the highest probability of confluence of cycles is in the late January 2018 or first part of Feb 2018.
UnknownUnicorn540299
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@Nightstar, Show me the cycle intervals that show that we need to make now a failed cycle at this point in time (with reasonable cycle timing for ICLs) then I am happy to listen to you.
Nightstar
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@viking83 I don't need to show you anything my friend because you can figure out the cycle intervals all on your own.
I'm here to provide an opinion/analysis/perspective or whatever you wanna call it..! That opinion is based on cycle analysis, sentiment and a myriad of other tools that I've acquired over the past 15 years and that I use carefully in conjunction with one another.
Take it or leave it, I really don't care as it makes no difference to me :) Best of luck!