GOLD - Getting close

FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
All I can say : we are almost there. Gold bounced off the 200 EMA today again. While the dollar was dropping hard today

gold just printed a weak bounce . It's the 4th bounce from the 200 EMA in 5 weeks.
So while many people think it's bottoming in a double , triple , quadruple bottom, I don't think it's bottoming.
It seems to me gold is forming a triangle on the daily chart .
It's just waiting for the dollar to finish its correction when it bounces again gold will break down from the triangle below the 200 EMA and later the 200 SMA . That will trigger our panic selling .

I have 2 scenarios for the breakout:
1.We might break above 1289$ first to suck in all the rest of the goldbugs from the sidelines.
2. We just simply break down the triangle

I counted the target price from the triangle's height ( green) : it's at 1200 and our very important blue trendline is at 1200 too.
If we assume the triangle is a continuation pattern we can count the target price from the prior down trend (blue dotted line) it's a bit deeper at around 1175$.

Time will tell how this plays out.
Kommentar: Big dollar drop today again
Kommentar: Weak bounce in gold again.
We might not even get the breakout of the triangle....
Not much of a change, still in the triangle...
Kommentar: The US GOVT 10 YEAR BONDS bouncing hard today.
It's inverse correlation with gold.
Kommentar: The key is 1288$.
If the Friday breakout is not holding in the Asian session a false breakout at this point could be a complete down reversal.
Kommentar: Playing out as expected. It was a bull trap.
Kommentar: Before we get too excited I would like to show you we are still in the triangle:
Kommentar: Maybe just another bankster trick before thanksgiving.
Kommentar: Yes. It's holiday in the USA tomorrow. So don't expect a big volume breakout before the holiday. My guess this is a perfect spot to dump gold down when every bull bought and every bear stopped out before the holiday in the American session
Kommentar: Volume was low today. Tomorrow it will be lower. So you don't need to be a big fund to push it down easily to 1270 again .
And I guess they will do it.
Kommentar: Very strange gold was not bouncing much harder on that USDJPY drop
Kommentar: It seems the goin' to the moon party is cancelled.
Gold is not bouncing even with the falling dollar.

Kommentar: It’s getting interesting...
Kommentar: Broken.
Kommentar: Clear significant breakdown.
Kommentar: But as I’m holding a big ,khm sorry no: horrible position Im going take profit on some of the position here at the 200SMA
do you think it is good to re-enter sell?
if yes, what is your suggested stop loss?
+1 Antworten
@vponda, yes. I would use a stop above Friday’s high. I reentered at the close on Friday.
vponda chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, thank you sir
I'm heavily short at 1277.63
+1 Antworten
usef BjornPfaff
@BjornPfaff, we will go back to 1295, i think this time we will break higher
+1 Antworten
@usef, 1289 was tge high. Higher high never came.
Thanks for your effort and sharing. I think small bounce from 1274 to around 1283.
+1 Antworten
Arpi are you going long from here?
+1 Antworten
@Fullmoon, no
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