In summer, Gold jumped out of that range and moved up another 10% before sliding back down into year end.
Market's remember old price levels and those folks who entered the gold market last year didn't really have a chance to get out of their positions. The signal for them to get out was the fact that gold slipped 10% down to $1130, which is far beyond the price where there were buyers last year around the $1240-$1260 level.
I labeled the decline into year-end 2016 as "psychologically tortuous", which I think is why we are having a decent bounce from that oversold extreme.
An active strategy from here is to "trade the chop". Sell calls going out to May using the $1250 strike to capture option premium. If you want to get long, sell puts with a $1200 strike and capture all of that premium instead of buying outright.
Either way - it will take awhile to get through this price level. Sharp shake-outs are possible, but be brave and buy into those breaks when the 30 minute chart fails to follow through after 3 bars.
Jan 23, 2017 9:41AM EST
If you sold calls, cover those calls here. If you have no positions, this is a great place to buy with a close stop (1 average range, $15) and target a $20 rally. I think the odds are 60%-75% that we will see a rally of $20 before a decline of $15 from here. In the long run, those are good odds.
Tim 9:14AM Thursday, Jan 26 Gold 1190.70 (GCJ2017) -9.80
It takes time to chew through supply as big as this, so look for Gold to follow bitcoin and surge higher over the remainder of the year. The world always needs a safe-haven asset class and gold is still one of the best to keep an eye on and utilize for hedging against central bank endless liquidity. If you don't marry your positions (trade in and out), you can capture 10%-15% return per year in gold on 10%-20% of your portfolio and get a 1%-3% portfolio return while experiencing reduced volatility.
April 27, 2017 8:09PM EST
For example, if USD goes to 80, which it will not, gold will be at $1800 and yes, it is not going that far either. Just making a point. Lets see.
I am long gold for a long time so I am not worried about the small movements, and if Trump really follows thru on many factors, then and only then I will sell Gold but that will be in 2018-19-20.