It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough. Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted.
What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle). You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system. Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
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SPX rallied from support like I expected earlier, the Italian referendum was absolutely overblown, as a risk event. But since it's out of the way, bulls can more confidently go back to their business. Gold still could rally from here, but to do that, it would have to stay above 1160.65 ideally.
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For as long as the trendline holds, risk on trend is intact.
Yes. A new daily high in XAUUSD can set up a buy, stop at the low two days ago.
aibek
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Hola amigo! Think risk off is ahead
IvanLabrie
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@aibek, yes possibly. I'm long gold and silver, and two miners (AG and NEM) but didn't buy Yen yet. Need more conviction with that. Maybe it's just a short term pullback though, I'm not sure we'll get such a huge move, but I'm sure we'll see some kind of risk off move this month, starting now.
aibek
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@IvanLabrie, thanks for reply.
This is extra zoomed chart - if it is grand ending diagonal then we can see 60 level - mega risk off
IvanLabrie
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@aibek, I'm not forecasting it based on that scale, so I wouldn't know, what I see as more logical and immediate is different. I'm weighing in fundamentals too.
What would cause this in your opinion? -the diagonal-
aibek
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@IvanLabrie, it's an old story of 'ever-higher' yen syndrome. I googled and found a nice article nber.org/chapters/c8625.pdf. It looks like trade wars are not a new phenomenon and the currency wars are just continuing.
IvanLabrie
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@aibek, yes, it could happen, I don't discount that. Thanks.
aibek
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@IvanLabrie, US seeks to support own producers, easy way is just to devalue dollar, every country now does it with own currency. Short Toyota then ))))