cacus

Gold vs T-Bond divergence

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
An interesting fundamental analysis here. (APART FROM the fake news from Bloomberg with the Chinese not buying t-bonds anymore)

This chart shows GOLD vs the 30 year treasury bond (US).
Both are well known fundamental wealth preservation instruments at least for the last 30 years where they shown a huge correlation.
So, both assets are competitors in the same race.

What is interesting to note is the divergence they are facing lately, GOLD prevailing over T-Bonds.
If you draw a channel through the last 30 years T-Bond, you'll see that there was a positive divergence for T-Bonds over Gold, but that divergence corrected some time ago and is actually shifting towards the opposite. Furthermore, the T-Bonds are breaking heavy resistances in downward direction.
I'll be monitoring the channel breakout to the low, if that happens, another HEAVY fundamental backing up Gold rally for the following years.
For sure that's my signal for buying HUGE amounts of Gold once confirmed. Expect Gold to get loose and skyrocket as the only wealth preservation asset to remain alive in the race.
Also, check TRJEFFCRB commodities index. It just confirmed a breakout in the upward direction which would mean we are entering a great cycle for commodities overall, Gold being the locomotive pushing the index higher and all the other commodities with it.
Now...
What's likely to happen if commodities goes up? Expect inflation to kick in, heavy. USD will devalue dragging all the FIAT currencies with it.
I expect the market to be following these trends in the following years.

Yet another analysis showing why shorting Gold might not be a good idea.

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