GOLD - The route to the DCL

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
We printed the DCL today.
Before posting a detailed gold update I just want to go through how fantastically worked the Fibonacci on this way down.

1. First we broken down the lower trendline of the uptrend channel (1321$). This level was the FIBO 23,6% retracement also. Notice how we spent 3 days to break down this FIBO level on the 13-14-15th Sept.
2. The next level was the FIBO 38.2% (1299$) this was also the breakout level and the 50 EMA . It was a possible level to print the DCL. Many traders were tricked out at this level. On the 25th Sept seemed we printed the DCL but it was only a false swing.
3. At 1281$ we had the FIBO 50% retracement and the consolidation before the breakout. We bounced only for one day from this level. It was an important sign and I missed this sign. It was obvious that we needed to go lower from here. I started my first longs from that level . It was a bit early..
4. Around 1263 we had the FIBO 61,8% , and at 1253 $ the 100 MA and the triangle trendline . I saw this level as the possible maximum low of the DCL. Today's low was at 1261.

As at the close of today we printed a bullish pinbar and a key reversal I'm very convinced the low is in for this daily cycle.

Perfect call Arpi. I thought we had two to three more days with the weak volume for a DCL, but the follow through has been excellent. Worked up to a 1/2 position in UGLD.
+1 Antworten
Hi CW, what's your target for daily cycle rebound
This will be the leg that makes new highs imo.
Long it is!
@Hello Arpi,
I hate to admit it...but this time I fully agree with your analysis.
It is still within the downtrend channel. Did not break the channel at 1281. I think its only a bullback depending if dollar index would breakup the 94 level or retest 91 level. It is too early for changing the downtrend.
so it will be good position to buy on monday, right?
@Murodjon, yes. In a follow through it's definetely a good entry with a stop below Friday's low.
excellent post as ever
Gold has shown a confluence of key level, a strong Elliot cycle completing and a bullish PINbar signal at key support, which includes the 200 EMA & 61.8% retracement levels. Low risk entry at a key level, with bullish signal but counter current trend. 21st day of Daily Cycle. Likely DCL is now in place. High volume on the pinbar day, RSI oversold and reversed, TSI crossed from oversold. This is day # 21 of the daily cycle, with day 22 being a typical bottom. Targeting a new entry at 1271 with a minimum target of 1303 within 14 days. This reversal has the potential to challenge all recent highs and blow the doors off the 1360 level. Let's see where this rocket ship takes us and who has the stamina to hang on for the ride.
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