ICmarkets

Update on current gold short...

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / US-Dollar
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Weekly gain/loss: + $12.4
Weekly closing price: 1232.2

From the weekly chart, we can see that the yellow metal printed its second consecutive weekly bull candle last week, enabling the unit to cross swords with a weekly resistance level penciled in at 1241.2. With an upside rejection being seen from this perimeter, it’s possible that bullion may look to shake hands with the weekly support boundary seen below at 1180.1 in the near future.

While the weekly timeframe looks primed for further selling this week, down on the daily chart the daily support area at 1232.9-1224.5 is still seen in motion. As such, it will take a decisive close beyond this support barrier before our team is convinced that the bears are in fact in control.

For those who read Thursday’s report you may recall our desk highlighting a short position we took from 1239.6, with a stop logged in at 1245.4. As mentioned in Friday’s report, we liquidated 70% of the position around the H4 demand area at 1227.6-1230.5 and reduced risk to breakeven. Our next port of call for profit taking is still seen at February’s opening base drawn from 1211.5. However, before this can be achieved, price will have to overcome the H4 demand area seen at 1221.5-1224.8 which held firm going into the early hours of Friday’s session.

Our suggestions: In view of daily action trading from a daily support area at 1232.9-1224.5, there’s a possibility that the remaining 30% of our position may be tapped at breakeven. What is quite notable from a technical perspective, however, is the possible H4 AB=CD pattern (see black arrows) that may be at hand, terminating at the H4 161.8% ext. at 1207.8. Notice that it not only bottoms nearby the February opening level at 1211.5, it is also located nearby a H4 trendline support etched from the low 1145.9 (1207.8/1211.5 zone). Not only is this a reasonable area to take profits but it’s also a platform in which one could potentially hunt for long opportunities. With this area lacking higher-timeframe (structural) convergence, however, we would require a H4 bull candle to form here in order to validate this area before pulling the trigger.

Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1207.8/1211.5 (wait for a H4 bull candle to form before looking to execute a trade, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: 1239.6 (live order, stop loss: breakeven).

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