A_Cryptastic_Mind
Long

Vechain: What to expect given the upcoming rebranding (on 26/02)

BINANCE:VENBTC   VeChain / Bitcoin
In my previous post, I highlighted the strong support line for Vechain in the VENETH             graph:



That support is still intact and we are still trading quite close to it. For those who wish to open a longer term position in "VEN", this is likely a decent entry point, especially given the fundamentals going for it (do visit my website for a fundamental take), and definitely our Tweet reply to "The Coca-Cola Kid" (renown market forecast wizard).

Looking at the VENBTC chart, we also see strong support in the large triangle formation, which is about to approach on its limits. Note that the chart is not drawn in regular candles, but in Heikin Ashi candles. If we look at the last candle stick on the 4-hourly (graph below), we see it is a “doji” stick (which means that the open and closing price are virtually the same, and that there is only limited movement in low/high). This doji candle is typical in Heikin Ashi charting and most of the time means one of two things: 1) pending trend reversal (note that we are talking about the 4-hourly chart, and you can see in the previous trend reversals in the downward channel that you get some green candles but not like a butload). 2) The second possibility is “indecisiveness” of the market. (by the way, at the time of writing, the doji was red, but now upon publishing turned green already).
snapshot

I believe this one likely hints to some upside in the short term onto the moment where we hit the upper triangle resistance, somewhere like 14/15 Feb.
After that it will likely test support again before the uptake. But that is only if we look at the 4 hourly. If we look at the daily, we simply see red candles moving downwards. They will likely test support, and I don’t expect VENBTC             to go much lower, given the pending rebranding on 26/02.

snapshot


Now, we also see a second triangle formation in pink, which could contain price movement a little bit longer.

A rebranding typically goes hand in hand with some nice price pumping. Ven’s rebranding is scheduled for the 26/02 (although there have been hints that they might postpone it because of the bearish sentiment currently in the market).

An additional indicator can be found in the MACD, which is taking its time to reach a bullish cross, and which might be feasible by the 26th if we would extend the red and blue line (see section under the graph, blue should cross red with blue coming on top).

snapshot


Conclusion:

Of course you would prefer to get some clear advice on BUY or SELL. But the chart is not giving us enough information to confirm any stance. The only thing we do know is that Vechain is a cryptocurrency with solid fundamentals and with an upcoming rebranding. A bullish cross in the daily MACD is in the making and could well support a nice pumping in the next few weeks. If the triangle formation breaks out upward and is confirmed, we will have more reason to see this one go crazy. In the meantime, if you would like to buy into VENBTC             , this is a nice entry point given the current strong support levels. Maybe a sidenote: if VENBTC             were to postpone its rebranding, this might turn the story upside down and result in some more downward price pressure. Otherwise, best to stay a bit on the sideline and/or if you wanna make shorter term gains, maybe not the best place to be looking (unless white triangle figure gets broken).

Just my five cents for the moment, updates will come!
Kommentar: Trend reversal on the 4-hourly confirmed, we're headed for the white upper support line of the white triangle. I do suspect testing the support back from there (so going back down), but hey - maybe the short term traders amongst you wanna have some fun ;-)

snapshot
Kommentar: Also, remember that these are Heikin Ashi candles, they act somewhat differently from regular candle sticks. For instance, in that new candle stick you don't see a "low" per se (as with regulars).
Kommentar: Another green candle joins the pack. Given that I have to prioritise some things, I will continue updating this post if it reaches then likes!

snapshot
Kommentar: It doesn't make much sense to follow this up this closely, but what the heck - one more:

You see three short term trend reversal indicators (1,2, and 3).

As expected, we bounced back downward from the white resistance line of the triangle (we didn't even get to the end of it), but now we are in 3, where we can expect some short term upward movement. Note that I am oversimplifying this greatly, but you see that it works quite ok. Remark: normally, you should use the Heikin Ashis for identifying trend reversals, but typically big ones; for sideways movement it is best not to trade on them. Nevertheless, you can see that they still hold up quite well.

snapshot


Also, remember my overall conclusion statement in the post itself:
Conclusion:

Of course you would prefer to get some clear advice on BUY or SELL. But the chart is not giving us enough information to confirm any stance. The only thing we do know is that Vechain is a cryptocurrency with solid fundamentals and with an upcoming rebranding. A bullish cross in the daily MACD is in the making and could well support a nice pumping in the next few weeks. If the triangle formation breaks out upward and is confirmed, we will have more reason to see this one go crazy. In the meantime, if you would like to buy into VENBTC -1.78% , this is a nice entry point given the current strong support levels. Maybe a sidenote: if VENBTC -1.78% were to postpone its rebranding, this might turn the story upside down and result in some more downward price pressure. Otherwise, best to stay a bit on the sideline and/or if you wanna make shorter term gains, maybe not the best place to be looking (unless white triangle figure gets broken).
Kommentar: Yup, green candle to confirm the upward movement. Already breaking through the triangle? Would be fun ;-)

snapshot
Kommentar: Ok guys, that was a nice bullish break-out, we saw it starting with the red spinning top in 3, then followed by two green candles, the first one breaking the triangle resistance, the next one properly closing above it. We are now seeing green Heikin Ashi candles all the way.

--> WATCH OUT for new dojis or spinning tops (cf. above) as these will typically precede a trend reversal (negative in this case).

In the mean time, enjoy the ride, but keep in mind that we are just breaching the horizontal green Fibonacci and that the pink triangle resistance line might be hard to overcome in the short term. We could reasonably expect a bounce there, but worry about that when you see dojis ;-)

4-hourly:
snapshot


daily:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IZQFHWQ0/

Might be that I continue this thread in a new VEN-post, so feel free to follow if you want more updates on Vechain! :)
Sir, this is a long-term hold. Should we buy and sell and buy and sell... Or just hold our startposition?
Antworten
@Dieter1983, Hi Dieter, I am merely providing a service here to those interested in the price of VEN. I concur with you, this is a fundamentally sound "long term" hold. You do not need to buy and sell unless you really want to trade, you can just stick to your position and let it ride :)
Antworten
Dieter1983 A_Cryptastic_Mind
@A_Cryptastic_Mind, thank you Sir
+1 Antworten
Once again, a spot-on prediction. Let's hope the second purple triangle resolves upwards as well!
+1 Antworten
I have Vchain for the long hold. 2-3years. I hope this one survives.

Which one do you recommend for long hold? Don't have the time to day trade :)
+1 Antworten
@Dieter1983, Hi Dieter, I try to refrain as much as possible from giving investment advice or similar; but I believe VEN, XLM, ETH, and NEO are definitely worthy of looking into with regard to your question!
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