That's what I was afraid of.... We printed a bearish pin bar today with a possible failed breakout. I see a decent chance that the daily cycle topped today. This is the 3rd daily cycle in this intermediate cycle and we might start our move down into the ICL. We should not forget about the previous daily cycle low. It was a failed daily cycle : we broke below the previous DCL. That's not too bullish: In the worst case we could break the previous ICL (a break below 39$) but I think if we start to roll over into the intermediate cycle low we will stop above 39$.
As we made big money on oil trades this year I give a chance to a small short position here with a stop above today's high. If we have a follow through I will increase the position as at the end of the IC decline we can have a panic selling. Indicators & divergencies Both the RSI and TSI are printing divergencies (purple lines)
The first level is where the EMAs are: 47-48$. If we have a follow through I will post the levels and confirm the start of the IC decline.
SHORT ENTRY - I suggest 10-15% margin impact maximum. STOP : 52.6$
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2nd day of follow through. I'M raising my bets to 20-25% margin impact here at 50.42$. TSI is crossing over again.
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RSI definetely leaving overbought again. MACD is showing divergence comparing to the previous high at the top of the range.
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If oil is rolling over from here this early in the daily cycle it's going to be a serious problem. We will be attacking hard the previous ICL. I would be very careful with longs.
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We are giving back the gains... We are the stop level what I've set a few days ago. (52.6$) The stop was not working as we printed a gap. You have to make a decision to stop out here or hold the position. I'M not going to stop it out as the margin impact is small. We should not give back the gains on the first day of the breakout after such a deal...
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GeneTyne
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give it some time. it's not supposed to break out after 20% gain within a few days. this week might as well stay in a range of 48-52. speculative short is ok here but thinking this will go all the way to 39 is an overkill.
@chartwatchers, opec agreement is in. there's Doha meeting later this week. opec didn't do all this for nothing. it might range sideways up here until we get some news that opec members aren't going to follow through with the agreement. i can't see how we can just slide down without a reason just because it's a cycle of some sort
nbn007
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@chartwatchers, gap up on monday and going up. No stop. Gotta ride this donkey bro.
CapitalQ
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It appears late cycles are continuing after a pause and refresh. Head and shoulders bottom formation still in play. Ascending triangle bullish indeed. A brief review of last 7 oil cycles could provide some perspective and preservation of ones capital is the best way to build wealth. Thank for sharing. When refineries come back as natural buyer it could be very painful for shorts.
shares9k
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@chartwatchers Hi Arpi, Are you still in the oil short? Please let us know your thoughts. Thank you
cigno.nero
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Hi, what's happened to Arpy? Why he don't write from a long time?
Tj
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Arpi, in the chart of futures contract of the month the volume gets up to +1 mln. In FX:USOIL the volume can get to +300k. Meaning that players looking at the chart of the futures contract of the month are prevailing and probably driving the market.
Do you place your targets based on glued FX:USOIL (or TVC:USOIL) or non-glued charts? Thank you.
Tj
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Looks similar to when OPEC didn't reach the deal through the weekends: