1. SA needs oil at around US60 next year for .
2. Wall street funding for Shale drying up. Not much new money for new shale wells is available. Wall street needs oil to go up. Shale producers need oil to go up.
3. Oil majors can sit on the shale wells that they own. Smaller players are only leasing wells so they are unlikely to be able to add much new wells without Wall Street help.
4. Oil production is lower than oil consumption. March to May inventory rise was due to SPR sales of 16 mbbl which abnormally increased the oil inventory levels. Programmed SPR reductions of 17mbbl for 2017 has already been achieved from March to May. US Govt is unlikely to do further SPR reductions in order to maintain oil price. (Trump is chummy with the Saudis) (see https://www.oilandgas360.com/doe-announces-sales-strategic-petroleum-reserve/)
5. Based on EIA data crude oil inventory is now going below the July 2016 levels below 500 mbbl trending to below 2015 levels by end of 2017 (around 420-450mbbl).