Trendhopper
Short

US OIL - THE WEEK AHEAD

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
THIS PLAN/IDEA IS ON THE BASIS WE ARE SEEING A DOUBLE TOP ...we will have confirmation that wave 3 (7 day rally) is finished once price falls out of the blue channel or this 3 wave rally could extend for another 3-5 days..its much too late in this cycle to long this .......wave 4 will be a slower, flatter and broader contraction than wave 2...wave 2 retraced 50%-60% in 2 days...wave 4 is likely to be a 3-5 day correction in my view down to .382 fib which is 35.80 on the chart, a level of strong support, so if you long on day 2 of WAVE 4 at the 46.90 support level ...you could get your fingers burnt....., these sequences are quite rare so you need to make the most of them when they come along ,.. ...to be successful in currencies and commodities you need to learn how to switch between the fib based trading and wave based trading...its like digital vs analogue.....a lot of traders (me included and some of the TOP traders) were trying to decode oil             this week in the wrong frequency. Fibs are still used in wave trading but they are more a secondary measure .. So if this plan comes together I'm buying at 45.80 for wave 5 ...as price is likely to rise to 60.00 (see weekly chart) .Keep learning and Happy trading people...
Kommentar: WAVE 4 will be ABC correction so long at 46.90 will see a bounce but then a correction down to 45.80
Kommentar:

UPDATED TO SHOW ABC price movement......
Kommentar:




Here is a more aggresive scenario that could occur, in this instance we long at 45.00 (50%) retracement and trendline support. This would be the start of wave 5

WAVE A and how far it falls is the key to all of this and will determine the placing of the other 2 waves (b and c)

Don't buy early in the week thinking you have seen these 3 waves already..

WAVE A will be over in 1st day/day and a half
WAVE B is likely to be a tiresome 2-4 day consolidation
WAVE C will be earliest Thursday in this scenario, even possibly beginning of following week
Kommentar: The chart isn't perfect as WAVE B could go as high as 48.00 resistance in this case
Kommentar: sorry i posted chart twice...trigger happy
Kommentar:

We've broken out of the blue channel....I'm expecting it to retest that blue support line when attempting a double top , (good place to short) then it will fall quite suddenly making the A wave.....,
Kommentar: looks like it will be a Head and shoulders top...
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see how trendline support was rejected by the big red candle.
Kommentar:
Kommentar: It looks like Wave A is done, We have new support levels...this is due to the price reaching 48.95.....see how wave A finished at 46.67 (0.236% retracement).....now we have a few days of wave B and beginning of wave C, price will sideways...If I am right that this correction ends at 0.38% fib 45.25...then we long on Monday 31st...when we also hit support (blue trendline).....we must not rule out the possibility we get a retracement to the 0.5/0.618 levels.. but I feel WAVE A would have been a much deeper fall for this to happen. so i will be going long on Monday assuming the price goes to plan....
Kommentar: CORRRECTION BUYING WEDS 31.. AUG.

Today Wave B will try to reach upp to the 48.00 + again...
Kommentar:

Ive added pink downtrend line...as long as price doesn't break this line Looks like we get there Monday early hours!!!! at the .382 Fib (45.22.)
Kommentar:

I know some bought at the 10 EMA, I prefer fibs as an indicator, you can see how the 0.23 fib level worked for end of A wave....I think that most buyers are holding back so price will fall eventually, its risky getting in now, price in no mans land...
Kommentar:

Looks like the 45.25 is not going to happen.....The difficulty for oil now is that there doesn't seem enough incentive for bulls to fully come on board so I can see a sideways consolidation to the support trendline, then it will go up for the 5th wave...so I'm looking at Wednesday for oil to still be around the 46-47 level and enter then when we hit the trendline...
Kommentar:
my thoughts exactly......O::)
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