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AndyM
18. Aug. 2016 10:59

Correction to a leading diagonal in Crude Short

Crude Oil (WTI)FXCM

Beschreibung

Well it kinda feels good to have exited my puts at 40.70 given the depth of the correction we've encountered.
The shape of the decline looks like a leading wedge, structurally looks good, and MACD reading suggests it's likely a motive wave rather than a corrective zigzag (no dip in readings at what I labelled w3).

Corrections to leading wedges are usually very deep, so the correction could end anywhere between 0.618 retracement (already fulfilled) or it could travel higher into 48-49 handle.

Shorting this setup through puts may be a good idea, mid Nov expiry should be OK, strikes 40-41 should yield at least a 1:10 payout assuming 30 is hit between now and then.

Also note that Crude is in inverse correlation with DXY, and as EURUSD chart suggests we are going to soon see a very good and fast sell-off in EUR, so Crude should follow.
Kommentare
AndyM
w3 is shorter than w5 in my labelling, so a leading diag is valid. I agree on the possibility to have a zigzag instead, as part of a larger ending diagonal, targeting below 26 end Oct-Nov.
AndyM
Something like that. Should coincide with a big move in SPX.
EvgenK
In LD wave 1>3>5 but in this case wave 3 bigger then wave 5. Its not a LD, it's ZZ, may be part of DZZ of wave (3) big ED
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