It might be bit early to call the end of bullish rally since late December 2018. But we could certainly have a count that shows wave (C) of {B} has reached it's peak.
Kommentar
⋅
But the above count does not necessarily mean the start of the multi months bear market, here is an alternative count
Kommentar
⋅
possible Long-term wave count
Kommentar
⋅
Divergence between RSI & Price, but price is still trading above the blue up trend line
Kommentar
⋅
short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
any push above 64.72 would argue either wave 4 or wave 5 is under way
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
break below the blue wave {i} low at 60.04 would indicate wave {iii} decline is under way
Kommentar
⋅
there are two possible bearish counts: either 1-2 or 1-2 plus {i}-{ii}
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
The '1-2' scenario also has two possible counts flat {b} of 2 triangle {b} of 2
Kommentar
⋅
break below 62.09 ( end of wave (i) of {c} of 2) would indicate blue wave {c} is done
Kommentar
⋅
The '1-2 plus {i}-{ii}' scenario
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
also notice that price has failed number of times to climb back above the uptrend line
Kommentar
⋅
Therefore I think it's less likely to see another wave 5 of (C). A solid close below $60.02 (6 May low) would confirm the above bearish counts.
Kommentar
⋅
is wave 3 ready to explode?
Kommentar
⋅
Short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
daily chart
Kommentar
⋅
we could also assume the 1-2 is one degree higher and count the structure as follows
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term counts: either or
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
alternative count
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
wave {iv} under way?
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
wave (iv) could be a triangle
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term counts: wave 3 done ( or if 1-2 = (1)-(2), then 3 = 1 of (3) )
Kommentar
⋅
or wave (i)-(ii) of {v}
Kommentar
⋅
immediate break above end of wave {iv} at $53.36 would eliminate the above (i)-(ii) scenario
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
wave 4 or wave 2 of (3)
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
triangle or flat?
Kommentar
⋅
triangle or flat
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
{a}-{b}-{c} flat with a diagonal wave {c}?
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
or an impulse wave {c}
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
either way
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
let's see if guppy ema could trigger the bearish signal
Kommentar
⋅
a solid close below wave (iv) low at $57.73 would also argue wave 2 has reached it's peak
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
break below wave {a}(of 2) high at $54.80 would confirm the above bearish count
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
key resistance at $58.32 as wave iv should not breach the end of wave i
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term counts or
Kommentar
⋅
note the rally from recent low at 56.03 is contained within a parallel channel
Kommentar
⋅
triple zigzag?
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
Need to see an impulsive decline to break below the end of wave x at 57.30
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
alternative count
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
possible short-term count
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
either pink A-B-C complete (Y) or grey (1)-(2) then {i}-{ii}
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
Note on 11 July, i assumed the following two scenarios: Bullish A-B-C for wave (Y) Bearish (1)-(2)
Kommentar
⋅
the bullish count is no longer valid, simply because wave B of a zigzag can never move beyond the start of wave A
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
possible short term counts
Kommentar
⋅
bearish green {i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii) OR bullish grey A-B-C flat for wave (2)
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
Kommentar
⋅
no change
Kommentar
⋅
Complex flat for wave (2) Simple flat for wave (2)
Kommentar
⋅
OR even a more complex correction for wave (2) , e.g. double three combination where wave Y is a triangle