2 months later, oil is still flat. As mentioned in my previous post about oil, I think this is a very crucial moment in the future price of oil. That's because oil is heavily manipulated and thus, if we fail to fulfill the consolidation and crash pattern as observed on 2015-06-29, I think oil will shoot to $65. All indicators on the weekly are very bearish and additionally the price has been riding the 10DMA into reversal.
I currently hold a position with NO MARGIN at an average 52.57 (January Contract Prices). Thus, I can afford to wait. I will average my position down as much as possible unless the price breaks up the daily wedge (see previous post) which will make me exit my position. Still, I think the possibility of that happening is low.
Do not enter a short at this point. It could be a bear trap. I would wait until 1 hour after EIA tomorrow. I wanna see how the MM will react to the 800k cushing build (according to genscape)
As expected, oil repeated the same pattern as last week during the API-EIA realeases. I think this signals that market makers are abandoning the long position. That's because they cause some turmoil, so that they create "opportunities" to "buy the dip", then further help oil price increase to get everyone thinking it will skyrocket after EIA, which beats expectations. When EIA is released though, they find the opportunity to liquidate their positions without making it look supsicious. Still volume is decreasing, which leads me to believe MM are almost done dumping.
I am still worried about the non-consolidation. We needed some green movement in the morning. This might cause buy the build if we have a a build larger than or equal to foretasted.
Here we go people one good EIA oil report and we should break the $55 resistance level. Then it's smooth sailing to $60. With 90% OPEC compliance and 60% NOPEC compliance and given the 45 day shipping period from ME to USA we should start seeing some serious draws in US stockpiles. Refinery runs should also start coming down and maintenance period should be starting soon. Also WTI shipments of crude hit 1M bbl/day. All in all looks to be a bullish week.
@AlexTrik, eia report was not very bullish. Next 2 weeks will be make or break for oil.
BigCharts
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@sentrypetal, Don't know man, this looks like the death of oil 2017
sentrypetal
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@AlexTrik, next week will be telling. We need to see a draw down or oil price will collapse. Demand is letting us bulls down. It's a showdown. WTI - Brent spreads are also narrowing which is bullish. May the best man win.
dh55
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think you need to lower your support zones down into the teens. just being honest.
dh55
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@dh55, nevermind youre on it. just needed to collapse the chart.