Nevertheless, we should never ignore the signs market sends us. A wise trader said: trade what you see, not what you think. And I can only see 5 green daily candles in a row. Last time it happened, we went from 41 to 49 in a term of one week.
Bears have only two options left to turn oil back to 40-lows. These options are: 50 and 51.60 per barrel. We are less than 1 ish from the first level and this surely will be stormed with tomorrow´s EIA report.
Beware of report: Genscape and were very but it is the EIA report who has always been in charge to put the things on their place. In normal conditions, we should see 50 falling down tomorrow but, as always, market will decide if we continue the rally or not.
Notice SPX500 and DXY were not really supporting oil these days.
Eventually, shorts from current levels will be rewarded with further profits if the NFP report on Friday pushed US Dollar higher.
I use this chart to determine how "healthy" are the oil moves. On a left-hand side you have a chart for Gasoline futures which, in normal conditions, forwards oil with a correlation above 90%. Now, check the last 3 days: Gasoline futures climbed from August lows with oil but now stuck in a triangle. Oil broke a very similar triangle days ago and now overpassed 50. Obviously, the option now is for the gasoline futures to have a huge raise but... I have my doubts this will happen