There is a Wolfe Waves ("WW") pattern that just completed at its 5-prime (5') position in the 60-minunte chart - Despite the significant decline from Point-2 of this pattern, the predictive/forecasting model remains BULLISH.
WOLFE WAVES-BASED TARGET: As this pattern develop, and if indeed there was ever a solid base to be had at Point-5', then I would remain open to the possibility of a reactive rally, albeit limited by the pattern's 1-4 Line (dashed BLUE line).
FIBONACCI-BASED TARGET:
Using a significant 1.618 Fibonacci expansion between Point-5 and Point5', one may cast an upside target along this line, such that 109.486 would represent the possible upside in question.
Added dimension can also help ascertain this target by the mere use of internal Fibonacci numbers, such as 0.786 and 0.886, whose range of values also offer a tight approximation in as an average result of the two:
(109.385 + 109.622) / 2 = 109.503, or 0.0175 pips from the 1.618-Fibonacci extension defined between Point-4 and Point-5'.
OVERALL:
As the predictive/forecasting model remains bullish, so should the trader's expectation remain open to a possible reactive upside. With the support of an advanced market geometry in the Wolfe Waves pattern, and the aid of simple Fibonacci levels, one can easily see how the upside may be quite real.
As a closing remark, and at the risk of bringing the picture to a complicated mess, here is the 4-hour view which demonstrates several of these WW pattern:
1 - One in GREY , which we used in recent analysis as an overlay to the predictive/forecasting model (see recent analysis here: tradingview.com/v/BiMte8tc/ );
2 - Another in BLUE, which is the subject of this current analysis;
AND
3 - A final one in RED, dominating the entire picture.
The point here is that Wolfe Waves remain a dominant geometry throughout the USDJPY pair (see link below in "Related Ideas"), which can be used in the trader's advantage.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Following is a visual review of the 60-minute chart:
1 - 09 OCT 2014:
2 - 09 OCT 2014:
3 - 10 OCT 2014:
4 - 10 OCT 2014 (Market Close):
Most important feature here is the decision of RSI to close market right at its supportive trendline. This could preempt a surprise to the upside at market's open. The alternative here would be a break of the pattern's 1-3-5 Line to satisfy a 5-prime definition, which is a variance of the Wolfe Wave pattern featured overall.
Thank you and have a fantastic week-end,
David Alcindor
IvanLabrie
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I was referring to this very chart, but I understand what you mean better now. This is a flat correction's wave C in the form of an 'impulse' as an ending diagonal, at least that's your take on it, which looks reasonable, since it's very hard to fit any kind of impulse with such sideways mess. Thanks! Cheers, Ivan.
4xForecaster
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@IvanLabrie - I still do not see which chart you are talking about when you are referring to "this very chart" (visual would help quite a lot here). I have not written any wave count in the main chart of this discussion thread (i.e.: the 6-minute chart below). Feel free to precise what you were referring to - David
IvanLabrie
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Sorry, my bad David, the one right over my comment ^ with the Wolfe Wave/ending diagonal. I was thinking this is wave C from a flat correction to the main impulse advance, which ended on a previous ending diagonal as well:
4xForecaster
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@IvanLabrie - Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:
1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle.
OVERALL:
While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
IvanLabrie
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Beautiful! Sometimes I'm amazed at the geometries and fractal properties of the market's graphical representations...Fun fact: should have just held on to my weekly chart based short which I had opened after seeing that WW in daily/weekly charts. I'll go grab some popcorn tomorrow at NY open.
eastrandhubs
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Hi good day is there daily chart analysis on a daily basis.
Some of the post is very old like 2014.
The wolfe wave indicator your guys are using can I also buy it from the website or is the indicator from another company.
I have start trading wolfe waves about 3 months back and is still learning.
Regards willie
4xForecaster
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Hello, @eastrandhubs - All analyses, discussions, chart sharing has moved to a paid service. I post all new trades, updates and results on Twitter (check " #CRWSignalService Hit" on Twitter for performances) - Service also moved to a private chatroom with group or one-on-one video presentations.
Once TradingView is able to offer fee-based, private discussion rooms, then I will migrate back here. All charts use and promote TradingView products.
Following is a visual review of the 60-minute chart:
1 - 09 OCT 2014:
2 - 09 OCT 2014:
3 - 10 OCT 2014:
4 - 10 OCT 2014 (Market Close):
Most important feature here is the decision of RSI to close market right at its supportive trendline. This could preempt a surprise to the upside at market's open. The alternative here would be a break of the pattern's 1-3-5 Line to satisfy a 5-prime definition, which is a variance of the Wolfe Wave pattern featured overall.
Thank you and have a fantastic week-end,
David Alcindor