This is a update to the long term FTSE 100 (UKX) Elliott wave count I posted 16 days ago. In that post I speculated that the FTSE could be forming a giant Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle(EDT) from the bottom made in 2003. I noted the supposed Cycle wave V up from the February 2016 bottom counted better as a five wave structure on the monthly chart and that if it was an EDT the wave up from February 2016 was probably just wave "A" of 5.
However, if you look at the weekly and daily charts the pattern from February 11 can be counted as a three wave structure which is required of all sub waves of an EDT.
The pattern from 2003 could be complete and signifies a very important top. Please note the throw over of the trend line from 2007. This is typical of the last wave of an EDT.
The FTSE 100 rally from December has been incredible. Today close down, broke 14 days in a row of closing up, a rare event. Even rarer the daily RSI reached the highest level since May of 1997, amazing!
This looks like a blow off top and ties in with what I've been posting about the US stock market at a probable significant peak.
*** See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 36-39 for information about Ending Diagonal Triangles.
Mark
Kommentare
kunsan
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From the high at 7355 FTSE appears to have completed the first leg down of a 4th wave triangle (at approx 7100). This triangle action is likely to continue for many weeks/months, and finally resolve into a 5th wave upwards to the target area at 7570/7600. If this is correct, and the first leg down of a triangle has been completed, then FTSE will now start rising in leg 'b' of that triangle. Everything looks negative at the moment, and the sudden rise upwards will be a 'surprise'.
If, however, FTSE decisively breaks 7100, this analysis will be proven wrong.
kunsan
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The rise from 6680 appears to be taking the form of a five. W1 was to 6975. W3 has just finished at 7355 being exactly 1.618*W1. Now in W4 (of 5 or C). Traget area for W5 (or C or Y) is 7570/7600. When/if it gets there I will go big SHORT for a return to support at W4 6680. However I suspect that the current W4 will develop into a triangle, and W5 won't be reached until early summer.
Mark - Interesting summary, I also agree FTSE is at or near a significant top, I expect some interesting & volatile days coming up both on FTSE and US indices.
If, however, FTSE decisively breaks 7100, this analysis will be proven wrong.