Hope you all got something useful out of my shorting call earlier this morning. Broken down bear pennant, 4 hour hammer, broken down 646 support, leaving the 15 min ichi, and dropping below the 200ema confirms the move. At least for now.
Re-examining the charts, this might be the end of the 3rd leg on a corrective elliott wave from the previous jump. Or it could be the second. Hard to tell at this point.
Overally gameplan remains unchanged from my original charts, but timing may be tricky.
1hr rsi now seems close to being primed for another jump up.
Put some 'tentative' price targets that may be of interest on this potential drop. Could be shorter or could be longer. But I'm aiming at the 382 level retracement before the 5th leg up to re-test 84x resistance. As always, be vigilant, set stop losses, and pay extra attention as the whale bots can move quick!
Happy trading!
Kommentar
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Well. Unfortunately we broke 646 resistance, but subsequently fell below it as BTC rallied, taking majority of alt steam with it.
Short term sentiment seems bearish now, and we have dropped below the 5, 15, and 30 minute ichi.
We have also broken the upward channel and have begun a defined downward channel in what I believe may be correct down to the 55x zone, which is full retracement from the previous leg up.
Additionally, what I 'kind of' interpret as a h & s pattern developed with a subsequent drop.
If we break the 59x area then next target area is 552.
1d RSI appears to confirm my original idea that there will be one last pump up on a 5th final elliott wave leg before a rather large drop as we are approaching overbought territory. As to how high that pump will go? I am unsure.
But there have been some great shorting and longing opportunities along the way if you pay attention to the signals.
As always, stay vigilant and monitor the price action closely, as we are in some pretty crazy times right now.
Happy trading!
Kommentar
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In the process of a strong bear pennant formed with a period of consolidation.
Rising 15 minute RSI and MACD coincides with eventual hard drop as it approaches the end of the formation.
Watch closely for the breakout in either direction. I am shorting at the 62x area with stop set at 646 (previous level of resistance).
Goal still set at 552 area of retracement, as breaking 593 would logically bring us there. Then we should theoretically have a nice ride up for awhile.
Happy trading!
Kommentar
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Well the pennant broke down as expected, and we're headed down to test 55x support.
For those that watched, there was an attempted fakeout break upwards on the penant, which subsequently failed against the key 646 resistance (that I noted).
Whale bot scalping at it's finest. That's why it's always important to wait for the signals and show patience before jumping in, as things aren't always what they seem.
Happy trading!
Kommentar
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Just to be clear, this may actually be the final C corrective leg we're on currently.
The question is...how long will it last. The current price point of 583 is an important one, as it's also around where the 200ema lies. I suspect there will be some consolidation and battling between the bulls and bears at this level.
We have dropped out of the ichi cloud, so if we drop below the 200ema, things could go down quick.
Next support at 554, then if that fails then we're headed all the way down to test the trendline in the low 500's.
My best is to wait this out from the sidelines and see how 58x holds up and monitor a break in either direction before entering.
But the 1 and 4 hr rsi's look like they're nearing prime pump territory soon.
Kommentar
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As predicted, 589 support broke down after a bit of a fight and we are headed down again. Next support at 55x. IF that breaks, then watch for the trendline support.
Congrats on anyone that took my original signal and shorted from the 62x level.
We have officially broken below the 200ema and well out of the ichi wave, which tells me we may be entering a strong bearish trend. If we cannot bounce off the trend line ~ 510, then we are headed down...and fast. Though this might provide some very nice buy opportunities in the near future.
Kommentar
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Graphical representation of where we're at right now.
I believe we may be in the midst of a 1-5 elliott wave descent, and are currently in downward channel. Price keeps bouncing off and forming continual bearish pennants and flags.
Question is where is the 5th leg headed. 54x or...the trend line.
My gut actually tells me we may fall to the trendline before the strong push, as the RSI looks like it still has more wiggle room to fall. But I'm paying attention for any bullish divergence signals before then. But things are sort of lining up that way.
It is hard to say. There are a lot of resistance points it will have to battle back through to get there. My honest opinion is that we are going to bounce back off the trendline ~510 before one more big push. Followed by a huge fall (as shown by the 1d RSI).
Perhaps my original forecast was a bit aggressive, but the general idea was somewhat solid.
I like the volume though. Always been strong, which is encouraging.
All alts are pretty unpredictable right now due to BTC's pricing volatility, so it's tough to make long forecasts. However, I like the coin and it's prospects.
IBM news was great, but I think it could really benefit from another news update to help push through.
I will say that it's hard to see it ever heading back to the 3xx level, as that is very close to where the price was before the pump, so I believe the buying pressure will exceed sells.
gauravchauhan4
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@ninjacookies, wow, I love the lucidity of reply. Thanks.
Are you a professional?
ninjacookies
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@gauravchauhan4, Thank you! And I am far from a professional, just an avid enthusiast with a bit of experience and a lot still to learn. :) I'm more gravitated towards analysts who present their thoughts without personal attachment or bias, so I try to model my own presentations in the same fashion. Thanks again for looking!
gauravchauhan4
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@ninjacookies, Good to know, and maybe that's why most of your analysis is spot on. I`m an enthusiast too without a bit of experience....lol
gauravchauhan4
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@ninjacookies, The buzz from the news is over, it would probably help if bitcoin prices start a downward trend.
ninjacookies
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@gauravchauhan4, Fully agreed. Right now the whales are feeding healthily and scalping on the decline. Market sentiment is definitely bearish along with most other alts during BTC's resurgence back up towards the 6k level.
Will be interesting to see if BTC will continue it's ascent towards a 7k ath with segwit2x approaching. I think most expected a dramatic pullback following BTG, but so far we have yet to see anything dramatic to follow recent historical patterns.
gauravchauhan4
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@ninjacookies, hope so, but also not at the expense of alt coins....hehe...
I really don't care about BTG, BCC was a different story, it makes sense to be future ready.
Btw, I'm assuming your healthy feeding was in reference to margin traders?
ninjacookies
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@gauravchauhan4, That is correct, the margin trading whale bots are having a scalping fest during this bearish alt phase.
I agree. BTG was a pump n' dump circus sideshow that provided absolutely zero fundamental or technical promise. However, the crypto community at large continues to demonstrate that they care very little about actual technological prospects and more about the financial gains. As is evidenced by the fact that BTG continues to trend above the $300 dollar mark. Hilarity.
Though I suspect BTC's future pricing volatility will decrease with each ensuing new fork release as the market becomes somewhat jaded by their oversaturation. Very reminiscent of ETH and the very early stages of the ICO epidemic. Right now it's just a giant cash-grab as basement dwellers and small interests groups scramble to find new, (un)creative ways to hit the jackpot.
gauravchauhan4
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@ninjacookies, Would volatility be affected by sentiments of the non-tech population, more the forks the less general public will see it as stable? I'm inclined to think of ETH as a different case from bitcoin coz I think bitcoin is like a face for cryptocurrency world, Ethereum may be the future but it relies on bitcoin's rep for now. Also with flowing in comments from the likes of Warren Buffet.!