SPY has a failed weekly range expansion decline, as well as a daily uptrend aiming for 196. There's potential upside well into the 199 mark, which is where the next Vix spike s/r level sits. The weekly failure implies price can retest the 203.87 mark as well, which coincides with a low volume resistance level, so I'll keep that in mind as well. I'm long AAPL and TSLA currently, and have closed DJIA longs, but I'll be looking to rejoin on a retracement if offered. Currently, if we fail to break the overhead resistance, we might see another decline, but it's possible this is a major low and we're bound to resume the march up in equities.
For more of this type of analysis, and frequent trade ideas and insights, stop by Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom. You can find it in the following address: tradingview.com/chat/
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
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We might get a slight retracement. If going below 189 I'd be worried on the long side.
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Testing the middle of the vix spike support, we might dip to the mode again at 189 before further upside.
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And check, we reached my target. Let's see how it evolves from here. We might get a new uptrend signal soon.
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188.06 is the new mode. The dip to the mode at 189 I mentioned happened. We can long tomorrow, I'll confirm by then.
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Correction, new mode is a bit higher. I'll go long tomorrow with confirmation. We can look to short the top targets with a 1 ATR stop.
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After today's close we'll have a new mode higher, and a price to enter buy stops for the long.
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Potential path and targets:
If we get a retracement we could short it for sure. Or short at market with a wide stop. Once the target's met, we should see a reaction to the upside. There's strong support below. If broken it can be really ugly.
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With USDJPY close to the first support, a bounce tomorrow is expected. Asian action in futures is incredibly bearish for now. Will update tomorrow after the market closes.
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We might see a turn soon, expecting big upside.
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And so we did, I'm long, but not long the market.
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If we break the 194 Vix spike level, we might see further upside. The reaction to the lowest level implies this was it for the downside, at least for some time. (We discussed this with Tim West in his chatroom, he said it was a potential terminal triangle conclusion, and judging by the speed of the ascent it seems to be the case)
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Judging by the lack of sufficient speed to confirm the terminal in time, and the fact that yesterday's bar turned down right below a key level, it would appear that we might see an excursion to the lows. We might even see a new low, but it's uncertain for now. I have closed my equity longs for the time being, and will wait for new buy signals that may come.
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Uptrend should be done or close to it for now. We might get a new leg up before a steep retracement. Monitor the 207-208 zone.
steep? really? hope won't happen, any targets in mind?
IvanLabrie
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Check my latest intermarket analysis chart. Have a nice weekend :)
dingying85
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Is it confirmed? the uptrend?
IvanLabrie
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No, it seems we'll dip below the recent swing low.
Judging by high yield bonds and yen pairs.
The mode didn't hold today, this is bad news.
I expect a prolonged flush of weak longs until the market actually turns.
It'll be volatile for sure.
We might see a drop during next week.
My take is to hold off from buying until we test a strong support level.
I'll map those in the comments.
This might be good for a bit more upside in gold and silver.
Rayge
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i short gold at 1055 and long spx500 at 1895
now lets see what will happen next two or three weeks
IvanLabrie
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Seems like a good idea.
A nice pair trade.
Keep size based on ATR of each and you'll be safe.
dingying85
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Hi, thanks for your nice chart, do we still have the global meltdown? or we are out of the woods already? turning bullish?
Thanks.
IvanLabrie
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There's at least a big chance for a rally from here.
After the rally tops, it's possible to resume the downtrend, but not confirmed yet.
Let's go swing by swing.
Next trade is long to 202.5.
dingying85
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That is a long way, are we really in a bear market? What could be the time horizon to go to 202.5? two months?
IvanLabrie
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No, a week or two!
I think we're in a consolidation before more rallying this year, along with oil.