If you apply a moving avarage to a chart you get a handy and predictable behavior.
If you apply a to a chart you get a very precise band. I calculated that at two standard deviations, the HV is predictable with about 4-5% days of error.
Trying to forecast a break out is almost impossible I think; I think the people contrary trading VXX or SVXY have seriously hurt many times these two years. Don't play difficult.
If you assume zero dividend yield and zero risk-free rate, the price of an option is then only determined by time and . Time is a constant. is strongly mean reverting. This should makes it less difficult to "buy low and sell high".
Bottom line is: measure the probabilities and act upon the assumption of a normal behaviored market.