Opening Jan Call Broken Wing Bfly no down risk break-even 268.39


The top panel below chart orange showing average change over 1 month +$3.60 which is also ~ the expected move based on Implied volatilty. That puts the SPY             into peak profit area of this Broken Wing Butterfly spread. The break-even is another buck and a half (about) higher. Last week was a little down which sometimes makes more of a bounce but no special reason to expect the up side to get challenged. The down side has zero risk in fact will profit $33 (the credit for establishing the postion) with a down move.

credit .33
delta -9
Theta 0.68
max profit corrected for actual fill $133
max loss " $167
downside (any) $33 at expiration. It will not be open that long but flies tend to
be slow so it might be open up to a month.

Even though so-called tax reform bill is in the works, the s&p             probably has upside yet and volatility has been acting a little goofy lately I am expecting
that the SPY             will not rush quickly to new highs. If that does happen I would at some point sell off the embedded long call spread (266/267) and look to roll
out the short (267/270) spread.
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