No one knows when, it can be next week, next month or next year. Given the limited upside and huge downside risk, do you feel safe holding SPX or any US stocks overnight.
This is how I see it now. Dirty C/H. Target 3086(reached). aggressive target 3122
stockmarketupdate
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@KristyFleisher, Good chart. Chat can please explain a little more about your conclusion Dirty C/H. Target 3086(reached). aggressive target 3122.
KristyFleish
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@stockmarketupdate, Easy. Pattern recognition. With proper anticipation and interpretation leads to given.
nickk47
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What are average joes suppose to do with their monthly broad market ETF/Mutual fund contributions to prepare for this? I, too have been weary of a downturn that might start anytime now. I started halving my monthly contribution to my index funds and started accumulating the rest as cash. Cashing out my index funds right now seems like a hasty move that I might regret 20 years from now. Timing the market rarely works for most people.If I was approaching my retirement age though, I'd be pretty tempted to move equities away from this bubble we are in.
Plad
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@nickk47, You may regret not cashing in (ok, there may be tax to consider). Who knows.
nickk47
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@Plad, Yeah no one knows the future. Which is why holding long term will work out in the end for young people who have the luxury of time.
stockmarketupdate
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@nickk47, Exactly. If you can ignore everything, you are your 25-30 years old, don't care 5 years of down turn no growth, then don't look at the market. I can't afford it because Im closer to retirement. I rather miss out on 5% upside than lose 50% in downside
stockmarketupdate
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@nickk47, I personally, switched my pension to short via Long Bear ETF (opposite of SPX) and will wait till market crash. My view is, market is expensive right now, and upside is less than 5% but the risk of down side is 50%. Again no one knows when it can happen. For the very reason, I can't sleep at night with a fear of my portfolio crashing 50% and wait 5 years to get where we are no today. I study economy and this approach is called "Loss Aversion". Staying long in the current market is ultra risky as far as capital preservation is concerned.