Here is 1982 to 1987. The low in 1982 was sheer desperation, coming out of interest rates that had skyrocketed, inflation out of control, and an economic downturn that was hurting everyone. Long gas lines, OPEC had been out of control and the last 16 years were a loss of 66%-80% when adjusted for inflation. Stocks had been HORRIBLE. The perfect, fertile ground for a major stock market rally.
So here it goes: Let's pointing out some very big "one-direction" rallies in the markets for so many people that can't seem to believe that this type of rally we are having now has EVER happened before. People honestly don't know what to say to this rally - they seem to just be unable to understand.
I highlighted 3-4 sections of the 1982-1987 stock market rally to show you some accelerated rallies: 1. That first rally is 41% in 54 trading days! And continues on to 68% in 179 trading days! 2. The next blue box is 17% in 38 days and continues on to 40% in 148 days! 3. The next blue box is 25.6% in 48 days! 4. And the final one is 22% in 57 days! Those are incredible advances.
Since the election, we have done 10% in maybe 100 days and the world is BLOWN AWAY. Why??? What gives???
Well, I don't know what to say - Call it what you want, but with so many fears and worries about everything in the media, I can say it is more likely to have "more of the same" for awhile longer.
Please review my other long term charts and you'll see that things are that "out of control".
If you had 100% of your salary to invest right now, what would you do with it and why? Please answer below, honestly if you would.
Best regards,
Tim West
Master Chartist
Kommentar
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The GREEN BOX is the current TRUMP RALLY and then I put it up in the chart of the 1982-1987 rally - so you can see it compared to the other ones for magnitude and directionality.
Kommentar
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I received a question in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM asking me "Do you think there will be a sell-off?" And my reply is the following: I don't think it is important if there is a selloff or not. What I hate seeing is the ignorance that is being presented everywhere that THIS TYPE OF RALLY HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. This type of rally has happened MANY TIMES BEFORE IN MUCH LARGER FORMAT! Can we please just get back to analyzing "real information"?
The market is always trying to explore what is the right price. What level will bring in more orders? Higher or lower? We've seen a very hesitant, tentative and worried advance in the market. Just like people walking into the water after a shark attack, they tip-toe in at first, wait awhile, then edge in a little further, then wait.... and keep edging into the water always looking to make a fast exit if they feel it is unsafe. So far, people are up to their ankles maybe in this advance or maybe the mid-calf (to show how deep the water is) and I'm not predicting a shark attack, but essentially that is the level of concern that I can ascertain from reading and listening to the news. I may be oversensitive but I hope you appreciate the analogy I am telling you.
All the best,
Tim 5:19PM EST 2/27/2017
Kommentare
weibin
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Yea. Many people hate this bull run since the election that's why I think the market will not pull back significantly, maybe until summer. But longer term is bullish. Dow could hit 30k within 3 years.
ewtrder
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while i think the current market is more like the 1995 to 2000 period instead of 1982 to 1987 period by valuations, the price action could be like 1984 to 1987 period. Keyword here is: could ;-)
timwest
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@ewtrder, We can overlay that time frame too. Either one allows for much higher prices.
ewtrder
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@timwest, agree market could shoot very big up and drop down like a rock back the wave 4 area of the cycle
wien
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Thanks very much for the sharing of your insight and your explanation!
coolingla
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Agreed.
For example, even though oil looks poised for a drop, I am slowly buying back oil stocks. Many of them are already oversold, again. Similarly many stocks on the market now are cheap or even dirt cheap. So while a correction is possible, I don't buy the idea that the market can't go higher any more.
timwest
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@coolingla, Great points. Would you mind sharing which oil stocks you are considering to buy and what makes you "avoid" certain names? Thanks in advance!
coolingla
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@timwest, I like Canadian oil stocks the most, there are many to choose from, PWE, CPG, GXOCF etc . The eventual recovery of the Canadian dollar will push these E&Ps to a much higher value.
These are long term trade and/or hold though.
teco_mafra
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well, problem is, in 1982 market was at a bottom, and in 2017 it comes from 9 years of no stop climb.
wtfrtr
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Found this interesting article on SA, would like to know your feedback as the author makes excellent points