Conditions: A flush tomorrow for the 88,6 retrace of the X to A-leg (2082 handle) no more no less. This could suck in bears and create a bear trap. It has to be the 88.6 retrace... (A must) Then we have to see a hard reversal for creating a short squeeze that could propel the D leg up for a BLOW off top
Clues to support this possibility: We have B-leg retracing 88.6 of the X to A-leg. If we get the C-leg retracing 88,6 of the X to A-leg ... the setup for the 1.618 extension is then ready to pan out.
The only problem I see with that 2082 being hit tomorrow is the past statistics of Wednesday. Someone I used too speak with a lot told me he had his people run some backtest all the way back to the 1980's and found that Wednesday's rarely puts in a high or low for any given week. The percentages were that only 7% of the time did any Wednesday put in a high that week or a low. Meaning that 93% of the time a high or low for any given week was put in on a Monday/Tuesday or Thursday/Friday. Personally I notice that the market tends to trend from Tuesday to Thursday (with bounces of course) with Monday's and Friday's being the lighter volume days. It's like traders don't get started until Tuesday and close up positions by Thursday.
So while I do expect another move lower before a breakout rally I suspect it will happen on Thursday or Friday. Possibly we gap up Wednesday from something Janet Yellen says at 9:15 am, hit some resistance, back down some (but not taking out the current low today) then back up and down the rest of the day. Choppy wild swings to confuse both bulls and bears. Then down Thursday morning to your target and then we rip up? There's also the Euro deadline this coming Monday that could cause the market to pause until the date has past. Certainly next week has a strong tendency to be a bullish week as it's the monthly option expiration week. One thing is for certain... we are very close to an important top.
dionvuletich
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Harmonic Price projections are just that.. price projections - not time,
The exact time to reach a projection really has nothing to do with harmonic price patterns so the timing of when it reaches a level is largely irrelevant here,
As what we are really looking at is simply a price zone to initiate a short position, nothing more
Cycles, time projections, time clusters etc or even average day of week statistics are of no help here with this particular pattern
reddragonleo
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I find that they all are important and work together. While a price range is certainly important the time it hits is very important too. We all know that certain times of the day commonly have the most volume and certain days of the week are more active as well. I like to combine price, pattern and time together to get a better guess at when we are ready to turn. Certainly though your statement on Harmonic Price is correct.
dionvuletich
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Fair enough, if it works for you then power to you
I use only price as FX and eminis are so liquid that liquidity/ slippage is never a concern for me I usually set my orders days in advance and let them be, I know the levels I want to buy and if it gets there then great - if not and the setup is invalidated then they are cancelled
I'm a swing/ position trader so I get your point above as intraday volumes are important for good fills if you are a shorter term trader with tighter targets
dionvuletich
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Nice spotting, I did not see that - although I don't trade those patterns
Still longer term bearish but I think this is a valid setup
coinmantra
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Good one and yes highly likely! The next larger move is to the upside from here target 2142-2162 SPX
CoinedByCrypto
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Thanks for your comment...Well time will tell
coinmantra
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BLawrence - you are a good analyst! And time told :-) Now SELL on Monday on the gap higher. Have a good weekend!
CoinedByCrypto
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Thanks for a your kind words... have a nice weekend!
So while I do expect another move lower before a breakout rally I suspect it will happen on Thursday or Friday. Possibly we gap up Wednesday from something Janet Yellen says at 9:15 am, hit some resistance, back down some (but not taking out the current low today) then back up and down the rest of the day. Choppy wild swings to confuse both bulls and bears. Then down Thursday morning to your target and then we rip up? There's also the Euro deadline this coming Monday that could cause the market to pause until the date has past. Certainly next week has a strong tendency to be a bullish week as it's the monthly option expiration week. One thing is for certain... we are very close to an important top.